So, its June and the year is 2008 or later. You guys all know the drill. Tomas Kaberle probably used his no trade clause at the trade deadline, and speculation runs wild that the Leafs will trade him at the draft, particularly this year where the pick cupboard is particularly low. The particular opinion is that the Leafs want a top six forward and secondary toughness in return, in an effort to shore up a particularly ailing forward system on a team filled to the brim with defencemen and goaltending for the first time since the birth of Chris Chelios (273 BC).

At this point, everyone agrees that no matter how much we respect Kaberle for being one of the top all time defencemen on this team in terms of contribution, for being far and away the longest serving Leaf left (he’s the only player that was on the roster before October 2008. Yes, you read that right), for being classy as can be during his tenure, for consistantly being an awesome defenceman, and about a thousand things great about him, its his time to go. Dion Phaneuf has come in and declared the team his, essentially making it clear that anyone who disagrees can jump off a bridge. Francois Beauchemin had a solid year. Komisarek, when healthy, was very good after the first few weeks. Luke Schenn had a weak start to the year, but has been evolving at hyperspeed since Dion came in. Carl Gunnarsson has shown amazing strides in his play. And the Leafs have a million and one defensive prospects willing to force Jeff Finger into the AHL. Kaberle is just simply the odd one out.

There is a question that concerns many though – and that’s who would be wanting a player like Kaberle? As great as he is, there are definite concerns in such a trade.

1. How does the other team look for salary?
1a. Do they have a lot of players to sign already? High cap space may not be as good as appears.
2. Do they have enough forward depth to be able to trade someone solid away?
3. Would Kaberle be a first pairing defenceman on the team?
4. Would Kaberle be the #1 puck moving defenceman on the team?
5. Is the team in a position where they’d want to be acquiring a Kaberle to win?
6. How badly would they require Kaberle to sign an extension? And
7. Would Kaberle want to sign an extension there?

I took these 8 categories, and put them in to a chart, to see if it gives a reasonably accurate portrayal of who I thought could aquire Tomas. This is what came out of it.

It uses the 8 factors that I mentioned above, in order. With the exception of cap hit, the good, neutral, and bad weren’t evenly spread amongst the teams. What do the asterisks mean? Anaheims factor in the indecision of Scott Neidermayer, who’s future is in the cards at the moment. If he stays, than the answer is no. If not, than it ‘s yes. Washington, its a reminder for me to point out that Mike Green isn’t a puck mover, hence Kaberle’s spot at #1 there. Straight forward enough, I’d say, minus one question.

How did I figure out the wants?

I went yes for teams in the Northeast (made a mistake on Ottawa – that yes should be green), teams in the East close to the top (Washington, Pittsburgh), and teams in the east with other factors (Longtime friend and teammate Bryan McCabe being in Florida, and brother Frantisek probably putting in a good word for the Carolina Hurricanes). All other Eastern teams or Canadian teams were given a maybe. Los Angeles was given a maybe due to its rising up the charts (like Pittsburgh and Washington), as was Chicago. Detroit is in for its reputation as a good team for veteran European players to play for, and Phoenix is a maybe due to the relocation rumors possibly putting it on the way Winnipeg on June 30th, 2011, classifying it as a Canadian team.

Now, if we were going to use this as a straight up indicator of who’s in and who’s out, you’d get these as your favourites.

1. Washington / 2. Buffalo / 3. New Jersey / 4. Boston / 5. Pittsburgh

And the Bottom 5..

1. Calgary / 2. Minnesota / 3. Anaheim / 4. Detroit / 5. Nashville

Now, there are quite a few teams that surprised me once I made these charts that were so low. I honestly thought that Vancouver would be in the top 5. Chicago, Anaheim, and Detroit at least somewhat higher. Dallas similar. Pittsburgh I always saw as a possibility, but not 5th.

Nonetheless, I’m going to use that 5 as 5 of my teams where I think Kabby will go, merely cause it fits the system. And I”ll add 5 more: Chicago, Vancouver, Ottawa, Florida, and Dallas.

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Washington Capitals
Cap Space: 13.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: Tomas Fleischmann, Eric Fehr, Jose Theodore, Joe Corvo,
Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn
Notable Defencemen: Mike Green, Joe Corvo, Tom Poti
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Montreal Canadiens
Next Year’s Direction: Another full scale attempt to win the Stanley Cup
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Alexander Semin, Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann
Secondary Toughness: Boyd Gordon
Best Feature To Kaberle: The Caps are close to a cup, and would arguably be the best all around defenceman on the team, and undoubtedly the best puck mover.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Such a trade keeps him out of the Division, and poses the best player potentially available in Alexander Semin

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Buffalo Sabres
Cap Space: 11.2 Million
Notable People To Resign: Toni Lydman, Henrik Tallinder, Raffi Torres, Patrick Kaleta
Notable Defencemen: Tyler Myers, Craig Rivet
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Boston Bruins
Next Year’s Direction: An attempt at improvement – not near going all out just yet
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Tomas Vanek, Tim Connolly, Drew Stafford
Secondary Toughness: Paul Gaustad
Best Feature To Kaberle: Close distance to Toronto, same division. Can be a part of a paring with Tyler Myers for years to come.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Can take Vanek’s 7.1M if Sabres are money-concious

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the New Jersey Devils
Cap Space: 15.9 Million
Notable People To Resign: Paul Martin, David Clarkson, Martin Skoula (I had to..), Ilya Kovalchuk, Rob Neidermayer
Notable Defencemen: Paul Martin, Colin White
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Philadelphia Flyers
Next Year’s Direction: A decent cup run. “If we don’t win, no big deal” level.
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Ilya Kovalchuk’s Rights, Cap Dumps of Dainius Zubrus and Brian Rolston (yikes…may have to go prospects)
Secondary Toughness: David Clarkson
Best Feature To Kaberle: Gets to be the clear cut #1 defenceman on a system that cherishes D.
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Kovalchuk is being targeted by the Leafs on July 1st, the Leafs could work his rights into a trade.

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Boston Bruins
Cap Space: 8.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: Blake Wheeler, Dennis Seidenberg, Miroslav Satan, Mark Recchi
Notable Defencemen: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Epic Fail Choke to Philadelphia Flyers
Next Year’s Direction: Not blowing a 3-0 lead in a series
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler, Pick-a-Center
Secondary Toughness: Boston’s toughness is largely primary or just signed
Best Feature To Kaberle: Near Toronto, in division, Chara’s playmaker
Best Feature To The Leafs: If draft picks are the focus, chance to get this years 1st back

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Pittsburgh Penguins
Cap Space: 10.9 Million
Notable People To Resign: Sergei Gonchar, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Cooke, Mark Eaton
Notable Defencemen: Sergei Gonchar, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Loss to Montreal Canadiens
Next Year’s Direction: Another strong push at a 3rd finals appearance in 4 years
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Chris Kunitz, Jordan Staal
Secondary Toughness: Eric Godard
Best Feature To Kaberle: If Gonchar leaves, can be #1 D on major competitor
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Staal is indeed on the market, his value is possibly lower than it should be due to 3rd line minutes

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Chicago Blackhawks
Cap Space: -0.8 Million
Notable People To Resign: John Madden, Adam Burish, Jack Skille, Ben Eager, Andrew Ladd, Antti Niemi, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and others
Notable Defencemen: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Brian Campbell
Last Year’s Result: In progress, currently up 2-1 in Stanley Cup Finals
Next Year’s Direction: Be back in the finals, win a(nother) Stanley Cup
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Andrew Ladd
Secondary Toughness: Ben Eager
Best Feature To Kaberle: By far his best chance to win the cup, then sign elsewhere for financial stability.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Have enough cap space to take overpayment to fix Chi-town’s mess

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Vancouver Canucks
Cap Space: 9.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Mason Raymond, Willie Mitchell, Pavol Demitra, Kyle Wellwood
Notable Defencemen: Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo, Christian Ehroff, Alex Edler, Willie Mitchell
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Loss to Chicago Blackhawks
Next Year’s Direction: Push Towards Minimum WCF Appearance
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Mason Raymond, Michael Grabner
Secondary Toughness: Darcy Hordichuk, Rick Rypien
Best Feature To Kaberle: Still in Canada, likely heard good things from Sundin, Competitor
Best Feature To The Leafs: Rumors of Prospect Cody Hodgson being unhappy can play to Leafs advantage

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Ottawa Senators
Cap Space: 7.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Anton Volchenkov, Andy Sutton, Nick Foligno, Chris Campoli
Notable Defencemen: Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Pittsburgh Penguins
Next Year’s Direction: Another Playoff appearance, no big push just yet
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Jason Spezza, Nick Foligno
Secondary Toughness: Jarkko Ruutu, Matt Carkner
Best Feature To Kaberle: The closest Canadian city, would be best offensive D in quite some time
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Spezza truely wants out, could be at lower cost than expected

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Florida Panthers
Cap Space: 9.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: No core players
Notable Defencemen: Keith Ballard, Bryan McCabe, Dimitri Kulikov
Last Year’s Result: 14th in Eastern Conference
Next Year’s Direction: Rebuild – Shakeup Year
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Nathan Horton, Rostislav Olesz, Cory Stillman
Secondary Toughness: Nick Tarnasky
Best Feature To Kaberle: No doubt, going back to being on a pairing with Bryan McCabe
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Panthers are wanting to trade Horton, they have 3 weeks till NTC kicks in

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Dallas Stars
Cap Space: 14.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Marty Turco, Mike Modano (If Return), Jere Lehtinen, Fabian Brunnstrom, Matt Niskanen, James Neal
Notable Defencemen: Matt Niskanen, Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley
Last Year’s Result: 12th in Western Conference
Next Year’s Direction: Push towards playoff spot
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro
Secondary Toughness: Mostly Primary Toughness and Recent Contracts
Best Feature To Kaberle: Obscurity – Low pressure market, dressing room full of Leaders as is, no major expectations next year
Best Feature To The Leafs: Tom Hicks may be desperate to cut salary if he as to keep team another year

First question you may have – why does it matter what Kaberle thinks? He doesn’t have a no trade clause, so we can ship him anywhere without him saying a word anyway, you may say. In theory, yes. In practice, yes. But looking at the big picture, this isn’t the best of ideas.  A team that is confident in Kaberle wanting to be part of the teams longterm plans (whether they can afford to keep him long term or not), is much more willing to aquire him, and willing to give up more. You always want players who want to be members of your team. Its the same logic, though brought to a new extreme, as the Dany Heatley situation. The Senators had no obligation to trade him, but they knew an unhappy Heatley was an underwhelming Heatley, and worked at it until a deal worked. I’m not saying if the Leafs trade Kaberle to say, Nashville that he’s going to be toxic in the dressing room, and a terrible player, but there could be a slight difference in his confidence and willingness, even if subconscious to him.

This said, there are other teams that are being speculated to be interested in him, most notably Columbus and Anaheim. Why didn’t I include them in my list? Because the rumors aren’t really insider opinions of factors that are going on right now.  They’re similar to this blog – just opinions of what could work for both sides. And you know what, I disagree with them.

The Columbus one is the biggest example. They don’t have a top 6 forward to give the team that isn’t either inexperienced and merely potentially top 6 (Brassard, Voracek), inexperienced, potentially top 6, and potentially a total headcase (Filatov), overpaid and a vet (Huselius), or way over the trade value of Kaberle, not to mention team value (Nash). And the 4th overall pick talk is equally absurd. They say the pressure is to get a player that can step in sooner than later on D – but both Cam Fowler and Erik Gudbranson are thought to be NHL ready next year. Maybe not as good as Kaberle just yet, but certainly more valuable in the long run than potentially losing Tomas after a year.

Anaheim is a different yet still ridiculous concept. The thought would be the Leafs and Ducks would centre a deal around Bobby Ryan for Kaberle. In theory, Leafs fans are having a party right now. In practice, this isn’t the move the Ducks will make “But they have depth!” some will say. “If they can’t afford him, he’s expendable. Who else would they trade?”.  The answer lies in one Joffrey Lupul, acquired in the Chris Pronger trade.  His cap hit is weak, but not brutal, at 4.25 million. No doubt they could find a suitor for him for a pick or something like that that could clear the space for Ryan without them giving him up just yet. The team really doesn’t benefit from Kaberle’s presence just yet, particularly if Neidermayer stays.

Now, I have to be getting at something with all this talk, don’t I? Some realistic speculation on where I think he’s going to go?

While any of those 10 teams wouldn’t shock me, I think the race will end up in between New Jersey, Washington, and Chicago. New Jersey needs a new #1 D with the departure of Paul Martin looking exceedingly more likely by the day, and if Kovalchuk is in Burke’s sights, you know damn well the Leafs will want every negotiation advantage they can get, and having his rights would be a good one. Washington clearly needs another defenceman who isn’t 100% one dimensional, particuarly on that powerplay (Ovechkin and Green on the point is seriously the scariest thing to see in terms of defensive coverage of our generation). And Chicago? They could use an even more stacked D, and even moreso, they could use cap space. All 3 teams have something about them that would appeal to Kaberle.

Whether or not Lou Lamoriello, George McPhee, or Stan Bowman are thinking the same way is not something I can answer.  But hopefully, the massive run on rant that is this article gives you some perspective on what teams look like in this race.