---

Over the past few months, Leafs Nation has become obsessed with an exciting 23 year old gent who honed his skills with Metallurg Magnitogorsk until 2 years ago. Now the longest serving leaf forward (and they say the roster hasn’t been blown up), Nikolai Kulemin has come off of a year that has left many people excited. But now they’re worried.

Kulemin’s contract expires at the end of the year, making him a restricted free agent. And a lot of people are worried. July 1st is in 3 weeks, meaning he’s close to be able to look at offer sheets, the Kontinental Hockey League, and arbitration. So everybody’s in a rush to sign him. But the thing is, for how much? And are the Leafs as rushed?

Well, the general consensus around the fanbase is they’d be content with anywhere between 2.25-3 million dependant on the length of his contract (less years = less money). Kulemin’s agents like that last number, and have been using it in negotiations. Of course, Burke isnt a fan of it, meaning negotiations have been rather slow, with nothing really being done on the matter in a few weeks.

So I figure I’ll play arbitrator. We’ll take a lot of factors throughout the league, and figure out what his worth is. And it may surprise a lot of you.

Why are we panicking?

Okay, this isn’t an evaluation of his worth just yet, but something that has to be done. Everyone has to stop panicking about the contract not being done yet.

First off, lets look at the list of notable restricted free agents that have signed contracts since the start of the playoffs:

- Jonas Gustavsson

Nice list, eh? Now, I know what you’re about to say. “Well, Jeff, that’s great. Can you give us the list for the entire league, and not just the Leafs?”

Sounds good. Here’s the NHL list.

- Jonas Gustavsson
- Cory Schneider

Yeah, nobody in the NHL has really signed their RFA’s just yet. Who else is left? Talent like Erik Johnson, Blake Wheeler, Wojtek Wolski, Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak, Bobby Ryan, Peter Mueller, Alex Steen, Joe Pavelski, Sam Gagner, Andrew Ladd, Ondrej Pavelec, Braydon Coburn, Devin Setoguchi, and many, many more. I’m just too lazy to write an entire article consisting of notable restricted free agents that still don’t have contracts. The point remains though – we’re not in a bad position compared to the rest of the league. In fact, we may be in better situations than many! Kulemin is the only remotely significant RFA we have, with John Mitchell and Christian Hanson more than likely pouncing on a qualifying offer if (when) they happen.

Another thing to look at – being unsigned in June doesn’t mean anything close to disloyalty. Case in point:

In 2001-02, a well hyped defenceman had a contract dispute with his team. He was a good one too – 23 years old, and had back to back 40 point seasons. They couldn’t get anything done in June. Or July, August, or September. October starts…nothing. He decides to go back to Europe. 13 games into the season, he finally signs a contract with his NHL team and comes back to get 39 points in 69 games, and being an integral key to the team making a rather good playoff run. The fanbase praised him for many years, and is currently trying to run him out of town for draft picks, even though he still is playing rather well. He’s so loyal to his franchise that he’s blocked trades out because he wants to stay.

If you haven’t figured out that I’m talking about Tomas Kaberle at this point, exit this page right now, because you’re probably too stupid to figure out everything else I’m going to say. But yes, Tomas Kaberle held out until late October, early November of 2001 and even played 9 games with Klando of the Czech league while waiting on a new contract. And has followed it with 8 more seasons in the blue and white. So don’t worry that Kulemin not being signed in freaking June means he hates the team and wants out.

Lets Start Comparing

With that all aside, lets get to the contract comparison part of this. This is where, as the name states, I compare Kulemin to a bunch of players in the league. But unlike most people who will just pick and choose 2-3 guys who make themselves look REALLY good in an argument (The Howard Berger/Steve Simmons combined contract argument theory), I’ll save something similar to that for later. What I have now is me making Player X’s – averages of a sample of a bunch of players.

My first chart involves 4 player X’s, and 30 comparison players. In this one, I took one player from each NHL team that was the closest to Kulemin’s exact stat line this year – a combination of stats, and age (players range from 20-27). This is what we got.

Obviously, the players in Red are free agents this year (all restricted with the exception of Raffi Torres, who hits the open market on July 1st). Orange-yellow denotes players who are still on their entry level contracts, so we won’t use them as an example because that would just be rude. Or incredibly unindicative of what a team has ever felt them to be worth, and merely a required contract at first signing. Or both.

Now lets look at the player X’s we have here. First thing you’ll notice – they all average out to be better players than Kulemin, both in terms of this season, and their career, in terms of statistical production. What does this mean? Kulemin’s statistical stuff is absolutely nothing special. Of course there’s other facets to his game, but stats are usually the biggest indicator in a contract.

Secondly – look at the average salary in the Green Player X – 1.97 million dollars. This gets you a player who is good for 42-43 points a year at around Kulemin’s age. That considered, does 2.25-3.0 seem a little odd for a 36 point Kulemin? I personally think so, but its up to you on whether you agree with me or not. Now, you may say “well what a biased chart – the Frans Nielsens of the world are bringing that number down!” Well, many of these guys weren’t far off from Kulemin’s numbers when they first signed. Secondarily, they’re averaged out by the several 3-4.25M contracts in this list. If I went full bias and found a way to avoid using the David Booth’s and Milan Michalek’s for this chart, that number would be even lower.

For further comparison though, I went with another approach (that does use some of the same players) to do this chart. No age concerns or anything, but instead of using the stats to figure out the cap hit, I used the cap hits to figure out the stats.

Two things before I go on – Tomas Plekanec may look like a bit of a biased addition, but do note he got this contract a year removed from a 70 point season, with a lot to indicate the present-at-the-time 39 points were just an off year. Secondarily, you’ll notice that nobody on Philadelphia was used. The reasoning for this was because they had absolutely nobody between 1.1 (Laperriere) and 4.2 million (Hartnell) other than James Van Riemsdyk, and I didn’t want to use rookie contracts. To replace him, I used two players from Phoenix, mostly so I could put Leafs scapegoat Lee Stempniak on the list.

Lets look at our player X – at 2.3 million dollars a year, he gets 7 more points than Kulemin in 5 less games. Once again indicating that even the low spectrum of 2.25-3 could be too much. On top of this, 12 out of 30 players here (about 40%) do a “perfect sweep” of Kulemin – beating him in all 5 stats while still being in the same contract range. In fact, 2 of those perfect sweepers were Leafs to start the year!

Personally, both of these considered, I’m already iffy on him being more than maybe a 2 million dollar player. Lets take a look at some contracts in depth – taking 5 players and seeing what got them what they’re being paid.

The Group of Five

My five players of choice for this are, in order of cap hits, Matt Stajan (1.75), Brandon Dubinsky (1.85), Drew Stafford (1.9), Trent Hunter (2.0), and Alex Burrows (2.0). I picked these guys because at the time of their signing, they were all fawned over by their fanbases for their recent strides as players, with Stajan, Dubinsky, and Stafford all doing it at Kulemins age (with Hunter and Burrows being a bit older). All have something about them that gave the “2 way forward” vibe that Kulemin’s been getting. Here’s a comparison of their contract years.

Yep, if you’re still an apologist of Nikolai getting a more than healthy payday from the Leafs after seeing this, you’ve gotta be a little off. With the exception of Stajan, everyone had more productive years, and were rewarded with under 2 million dollars. Alas, there are a few more angles to go through.

To Russia With A Bag of Money

Another point being brought up in discussion is speculation that the theory that Kulemin could bolt for the KHL, so we need to entice him with a similar amount of money. Lets use Kovalchuk’s recent offer from SKA St. Petersburg to come up with an estimated value. Kovalchuk has been offered 14 million a year, an absolutely whopping number for any hockey player, by far the most in the world. His estimated value in the NHL would be about 8.5 million per year, meaning they’re giving him 164% of his value. First off, lets look at a few of the other well known KHL contracts.

Alexander Radulov’s 3 year deal with Salavat Ufa pays him 4.3 million per year. Using the same formula as Kovalchuk, this would convert into 2.61 million dollars in the NHL (though he had a year left on his contract already). An argument could be made that he would get his after a 58 point season with Nashville.

Sergei Zubov signed with SKA St. Petersbugh for 5 million a year. Adjusted, that’s 3.03M in the NHL, which also makes sense after having an injury riddled 08/09.

Sergei Fedorov’s 2 year deal with Kulemin’s former Metallurg Magnitogorsk earned him approximately 12 Million (9+3), which adjusts to 3.6 a year in the NHL. With speculation that the Caps were willing to offer around 4 million to keep him, this isn’t a shock.

Lastly, Jaromir Jagr took anywhere between 7.5 and 10 million a year on his first contract with Avangard Omsk, and about 5 next year. That’s 4.5-6 million a year. Coincidentally, the Rangers offered Jagr 4.75, and the Oilers 6. Not far off either way. And 5 now would mean he’s worth 3 in the NHL now, which is about right.

Of course, you’re sitting here going, what am I getting at here?

I’m getting at that number, 164%, works to figure out Kulemin’s salary. Now, assuming he’s worth 2 million here, this means he’s worth 3.28 to the KHL (most likely Magnitogorsk). With that considered, do you really think that Kulemin is going to move his family, including his Toronto born kid, back to Russia for an extra million dollars and possibly ruin his reputation in the NHL if he feels he can break out as a legitimate player here? Personally, I don’t see it.

‘First Liner By Default’

Burke was spot on with this line:

“We haven’t exchanged proposals in a couple of weeks now. While they can say: ‘he was on your first line last year,’ there is no one who would say Nikolai Kulemin is a first line left winger. He’s a first line left winger by default because we did not have a very good team. I’m not paying for someone who gets the position by default.”

This is entirely true. First off, for a first line winger, 36 points is underwhelming, even if half the year was spent off the line. If you can’t put up 50 points on line 1, then you simply aren’t able to be a first line forward. Even if you do, you’re a weak one. And face it, at 3 million dollars, unless your team is stacked, that guy should probably be able to produce at a level that can at least be considered a weak first liner, 2 way ability be damned.

Until he can throw a 25/25 season at us, he should be paid like a normal 2nd liner at best.

How Much Has He Even Improved?

Less than, you may think. Check this out. While on paper, it looks like he’s improved pretty much every single facet of his game this year, things change once you adjust the minutes. Here is a stat comparison before adjustment, and one when he plays 20:00 a game for 82 games. And remember when looking at those offensive stats – this is a man playing with Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak instead of Mikhail Grabovski and Flavour of the Week the previous year.

While his defensive game has improved, he did produce at a lower rate than last year. If he’s the Leafs most improved player, its because everyone else who had good years weren’t on the Leafs last year. In fact, he may be the only improved leaf, of those left on the final roster that were also on the team in 09. That line loses a bit of merit now, doesn’t it?

Why We Think He’s Worth More

Leafs fans are happy to give him more money for a few reasons, that are all understandable. For one, we see potential in this kid, and don’t want to lose him. An offer sheet of fair value doesn’t give the Leafs a heck of a lot in compensation, and losing him to the KHL would just suck. We all want to see him here next year, so now that we inch closer to July, people are panicked and just want it over with. Secondly, we’ve become used to overpaying for players to ensure they stay to the point where this would just be another brick in the wall. When Jeff Finger is on your roster, you’d start to argue John Mitchell being worth more than a qualifying offer. Thirdly, Leafs nation likes to root for the little guy. Kulemin is young, and isn’t making a ton of money yet, so everyone is on his side to cash in..for now. The second he has a bad game, we’ll turn on him. It happens all the time. Finally, reports are playing with our minds. We’ve gotten stuff all year saying he’s the best thing since sliced bread, and conversely that he’s going to prove this after this year on another team. People are naturally sick of it, regardless of what they say, and just want to get this over with so we can bomb St. Petersburg and convince Ilya Kovalchuk to sign here instead (okay, that might just be me).

Conclusion

Kulemin is a fantastic young player, who should be with the Leafs for a rather long time. However, people are worrying too much about other factors to take this contract negotiation at face value. Other players around the NHL do more for less than we’re saying would be the right option, including players of the same age and potential. Kulemin would be best suited to sign at the 1.75-2 million range for a contract that would be suitable for all parties, with everything considered. The best example for him in all of this by far was Brandon Dubinsky – an early 20′s forward who came out of nowhere with wicked 2 way hockey and a rapid ascension to a top 6 role due to a lack of anyone good being in his place. He was adored by fans, and everyone freaked out until he was signed. He signed for 1.85 million, which turns out to be just fine for him. And it should be about right for Kulemin. Lets hope Burke agrees.