Sometimes being a fan of an NHL team is a lot like being a ten year old kid in front of a candy shop. You see that treat that you desperately want but then mom comes into play and says: “You can’t have it!”. She of course knows it’s not good, healthy for you to eat gummy bears, but you can’t be persuaded. You like sweets. I know some of you would like to have seen No17 glide down the ice with that blistering speed or burry one on the PP but it all comes with a price. As much as I’ve been against the Kovalchuk deal in the past, I’d like it too. What? You didn’t think I was impressed by his all world offensive talent. I’ve watched this kid since he came to the league as a No1 draft pick. I’ve even watched him play for Bars Kazan during the lockout and am well aware what he’s capable of. Also, his winning pedigree isn’t stellar in the NHL but is very good on the international stage. So, I’m looking to ask one question. Should we have paid that price? This one is about the current Kovalchuk deal and how it would affect the Leafs had we been in the mix and eventually won his over signature. I will also try to look the current and future NJ situation just to get a better, more objective view on the impact of his deal.

So, the saga ended with Ilya Kovalchuk staying with New Jersey, agreeing to a huge 17-year, US$102 million deal with the team that has yet to win since the lockout. The deal will earn him $6 million each of the next two seasons, $11.5 million for the following five seasons, $10.5 million in the 2017-18 season, $8.5 million for the 2018-19 season, $6.5 million in 2019-20, $3.5 million in 2020-21, $750,000 the following season, and $550,000 for the final five years of his contract, years which he’ll probably spend in a rocking chair telling stories of old Soviet hockey to his grandkids: Stories such as the one how he selected his number 17. It was never about Kharlamov. He knew that someday, he would make a team wait for 17 days. It was 19? Nevermind then. Oh now I get it. He always dreamt of getting a 17 year contract cough cough retirement plan cough cough.

Now let’s first take a look at a team that won the sweepstakes, the New Jersey Devils. Future impact of this deal aside, there are some immediate consequences of this deal for the Devils roster. NJ is, as it stands now, around 4 mil. above next season’s cap. Contracts and players such as Jamie Langenbrunner, Dainus Zubrus and Brian Rolston will undoubtedly have to be moved just to get under the cap. The Devils are trying to win now, while Brodeur hasn’t cooled yet. He still probably has one, two maybe three good years left and his situation will probably have a major impact on Kovalchuk’s effectiveness. The only thing that can justify this mammoth of deal is if Kovalchuk leads the way for a fourth Stanley Cup. One would imagine this will have to get done this year or the year after. If not, Kovalchuk will remain just one player on a limited roster, and the cup window will close. Arnott probably isn’t a Devil after next year and, however you look at it, neither is Rolston, Zubrus and Langenbrunner. Elias is getting old too. But the real issue next year isn’t holding on to the aforementioned players, it’s re-signing Zach Parise with very little wiggle room under the cap. Granted, their defense is quite good with Tallinder and Volchenkov but without a real No1 goalie after Brodeur’s retirement and lack of real depth in the prospect pool (it’s gets thin after Zharkov, and this year’s draft picks, with Cormier, Bergfors traded to Atlanta). Also, if the Cup isn’t won by that time, depending somewhat on Kovalchuk’s play, but mostly decided with the finer points of the deal, his contract will make him basically unmovable until the last pre-retirement years. That means, for better or worse, he might be looking at Atlanta 2 – The Repeat. There is also a matter of a new CBA that’s yet to be discussed. Ok, that’s the worst case scenario and I doubt it will come to that. Lou Lamoriello has worked his magic again, but keep in mind he’s 67 years old and he wants another Cup. The question is, by wanting to prove that he could win in the post lockout era, has one of the best GMs in history put his franchise behind his ego and onto the ropes?

Had Ilya Kovalchuk signed with Toronto, I suspect he would ask for more cash. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that he had signed for the same amount. With about 1.3 million in cap space right about now, I don’t know how we could possibly fit him under the current payroll. With a cap hit of 6 million, we would have to move Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski and find a place for Finger’s deal. Not to mention that Kaberle would and probably will be history. Now, that all does sound appealing but it would significantly tie our hands in the rebuilding process that lies ahead. At the end of 2011-2012 season the Leafs will have to extend some crucial contracts for the rebuilding process. These would include: Jonas Gustavsson – the projected No1 goaltender, Kris Versteeg – a top six forward and a core player, Francois Beauchemin – a depth defenseman and a couple of good prospects. So, even if we exclude the would be traded Kulemin and Kaberle there is just no way that Versteeg and/or Beauchemin could stay. It would hamper with our rebuilding process too much. Besides, you don’t sign that caliber of player if you’re not ready to contend for the Cup in the best years of his career. Would he sell tickets (not that that’s a problem) and get people that star power that Toronto has been craving for? Most certainly. Would he make us an instant contender? No. Would he guarantee a place in the playoffs? Likely, but we can’t know for sure. Would he totally derail the salary structure and the process of a rebuilding team? Yes he would. To conclude, I’m glad he chose NJ, I’m glad he wants the Cup and is ready to work to get it, but I’m also glad he’s not a Leaf because our rebuilding process is really going well. Also, congratulations to the LA Kings who didn’t go all crazy after a high end free agent and decided to cherish their youth.

Mislav “Xterratu” Jantoljak

UPDATE: The NHL has decided to reject Ilya Kovalchuk’s enormous deal with the New Jersey Devils because it constitutes a circumvention of the salary cap.