During the last couple of weeks there has been much talk of the dreaded CBA re-negotiation that’s bound to happen in two years time. That might seem a long time now, but you can already see its ugly head peeking on the horizon with the recent Kovalchuk/NJ versus the league mini war. So, what’s the deal? With recent Hockey News articles and some NHL site writings one might think that another lockout, let’s call it lockout v2, is about to take place when the current CBA (collective bargaining agreement) expires. I’m not quite sure that will be the case. Anyways, I’m just here to state my reasons why there is not that much reason to panic as some would have you believe. For those of you that are not that well acquainted with how the league functions economically or don’t have much knowledge about labor bargaining and unions I’ll try to keep this as simple as possible.

Let’s start by addressing the Kovalchuk dispute. My main point here is that it wasn’t the contract that stirred the waters. It wasn’t the obvious cap circumvention that pushed the NHL to revisit and finally reject the 102 million, 17 year deal. No, it was all about seizing the moment. The moment for what? Well, let me explain. Ilya Kovalchuk was, at the time, the biggest free agent to hit the market. All eyes were on him signing and the size of that monster deal. When it finally happened, it was the perfect opportunity for the NHL to show their cards, strength and bargaining position. All the cameras were watching, all the lights flashing and the NHL showed just how much power they held. To prove my point, I’ll just take any of the following examples, Henrik Zetterberg’s 12-year, $73 million contract extension with the Red Wings on January 28, 2009. The deal which is the longest and most lucrative in franchise history, it just wasn’t so close to the CBA deadline to be considered quite the example. What about Bobby Lou? The Canucks had signed Luongo to a 12-year contract extension worth $64 million for a $5.33 million annual salary cap hit. The front-loaded deal, which will expire by the time Luongo is 43 and includes a no-trade clause, sees him make $10 million in 2010–11, then approximately $6.7 million annually through to 2017–18, $3.3 million and $1.6 million the subsequent two seasons, before tailing off to $1 million for the final two years. What about Marian Hossa, Chris Pronger and their deals? Ok, I’ll admit the fact those are indeed shortened and shrewder versions of the circumvention that NJ tried to pull on the league, but without using the double standard are still circumventions of the salary cap. Last but not least, is a 100 million, 15-year deal and a cap hit raise of around 600 000 that much more satisfactory for the NHL to be considered legit? Let’s not be silly. Granted, both the NHL, NHLPA plus the Devils can now claim that there is not legal basis on which either side can prove that Kovalchuk wouldn’t play out the contract in NJ, because after all 42 is not 44, and it’s not entirely impossible for the player like Kovalchuk to play until the end of the contract. But is it probable? That’s the foggy part. The problem about this is, if the NHL rejected the second Kovalchuk deal they would have to investigate all the aforementioned deals. And that’s really a big process, especially before training camps. I am claiming that the whole feather strutting by the NHL was done for one major thing – improving the negotiating position before the new CBA negotiations. In order to accept the newly proposed Kovalchuk contract the NHL negotiated the calculation of value of long-term deals that extend past a player’s 41st birthday differently so there will be no cap benefits past 40 for any player who is signed. So in other words, the NHL turned a blind eye to the deal to get that exclusive benefit in the current CBA. The only way I can be persuaded otherwise, that this whole charade wasn’t just leverage making, is if NJ suffers a cap penalty before the start of the year. But if that were to happen, it would be a slap in the face to the Devils considering Chicago, Vancouver etc. suffered no such ill will. Whatever happens, one thing is certain, this is how much the new CBA means. A whole lot.

This has been a VERY long introduction, and I hope you’re still reading. The lockout was probably the worst and best thing ever to happen to NHL hockey. It was a good thing because it enabled parity, more competitiveness, revenue sharing and the implementation of a fixed cap. Greed was almost out. It was bad because, well, it’s kind of obvious isn’t it. The current CBA needs fixing, that much is certain. If a player wants to earn 1.2 mil. he must ask for a paycheck of 1.4, 1.5 mil. because of escrow. Small market teams still have trouble filling their rinks which makes revenue sharing kind of unfair to teams that really make a profit. It’s basically rewarding teams like Atlanta for not getting people in the building which is absurd. It’s still more positive than negative, as with the result of revenue sharing (yes it is sometimes absurd, but it also enables teams like Nashville, a good competitive team with a lousy market, to survive) but it could use some fixing. Fixing it, however, doesn’t mean stopping play.

The NHL and the NHLPA know that the league made some incredible strides forward. Ratings have rivaled the NBA on more than one occasion and it’s looking more and more like hockey is becoming that third sport in the USA. That’s mostly due to the advancements the sport has made in becoming a more open, attacking game with calls and penalties that benefit a talented hockey player. Zach Parise, Patrick Kane, Brian Gionta, Mike Cammalleri, Phill Kessel. Those are all examples of a fast new breed of superstar that, while restricted and held in the older NHL, now has a chance to thrive and entice the crowd. Chicago winning it all last year sparked an all new appreciation of Original Six teams. The increased interest is also a byproduct of a pair of hockey’s own Michael Jordans – Alexander Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and the growing rivalry between the two. With all that happening it’s highly doubtful that the league and the players’ association would jeopardize the emergence of the game of hockey with another cruel stoppage of the world’s greatest league. I think the fan base wouldn’t be so tolerable the second time around. Ok, there are fans like yours truly, fans that would wait until judgment day to watch a game of NHL hockey, but casual fans might wonder why follow a league that has a tendency to be put on hold every 5-6 years when there’s perfectly good baseball, soccer, basketball and football to be seen. Furthermore, it is wise to consider that the majority of players in the NHL are not Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin or Ilya Kovalchuk. Most of them are not superstars. Think of it like this, how many players play the 4^th line in the NHL? A lot. And how much money do they make? Not a whole lot, at least not compared to the aforementioned superstars. Could they really afford to be out of work for one whole year, maybe more? Maybe. How about moving the wife and kids to Europe for a short stint? Yes it’s all well and good until it’s Novosibirsk during winter time. And as long as it isn’t a long stint. That’s all well and good but there is still a question of bargaining. I’m not saying in won’t happen. I’m just saying that with all the paranoid writing out there, there isn’t that much reason for concern. The players and the NHL want the show to go on, they are basically at least ok with the majority of the current CBA which in words of both parties just needs tweaking. And like I said, tweaking doesn’t necessarily mean instant doom for those appreciative of the game of hockey.

PS I already published this on Proplay Magazine (http://proplay.ca/WP/), and I agree it has nothing and everything to do with the Leafs as the fate of the NHL is a fate all teams will share. So I think this topic is really important for all to hear and voice their opinions. We, as fan bases, can’t directly influence the new CBA negotiations, but we can certainly be heard. I for one don’t want my NHL to go to hibernation, don’t believe it will, but it is still a very real possibility.

Mislav “Xterratu” Jantoljak