It is now mid January, which is around the time that trade talks tend to heat up on a Brian Burke run team. After all, he likes making his biggest splashes early, as evidenced by the acquisition of Joffrey Lupul and Jake Gardiner last year, and Dion Phaneuf, Keith Aulie, and Fredrik Sjostrom the year prior. Making the move now rather than at the deadline lets him see how the team reacts to it, and make more moves if neccessary.

However, this year, it seems that swinging for the fences is the goal of everyone. When James Van Reimsdyk is the lowest profile player in trade speculation, that speaks volumes. Most of it seems to default to the big three in Anaheim, Rick Nash, and to some extent, Eric Staal and Paul Statsny. In other words, the usual suspects.

The Anaheim bunch have their rumours stemming from a quote from Anaheim GM Bob Murray, stating that the only two players on the team that absolutely won’t be traded are Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne. As such, this was rather quickly interpreted as “we’re selling everyone”. Oddly enough, when Brian Burke repeats on the radio on a freqent basis that every player has a price and that he’d take an overpayment for a core player, nobody bats an eyelash.

The reality is, Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan won’t come cheap, or anything close to it. The overpayment it will likely take would gut the Leafs roster to levels that would set the team back as a whole both short term and long term. While all three of these guys are fantastic talents, you’re easily giving two current players of a high quality, at least one or two higher level prospects, and draft picks just to acquire one. If any of them get moved, it’ll be to a team that’s willing to give them a player of a similar calibre as a shakeup. Unless everybody’s cool with trading Phil Kessel for Bobby Ryan, we need to stop talking about this.

Next up is Rick Nash. To be honest, every trade rumour round up until he’s been dead for at least six or seven years will have Rick Nash to the Leafs on it. Forget the fact that while good, he makes a ridiculous amount of money. Forget the fact he doesn’t have much of anything in terms of a two way game. He’s tall and he’s from the GTA and occasionally gets the TSN highlight of the night, so in Leafs Nation’s mind, he’s about up there with a prime Gretzky. It’s outrageous – this is a guy that despite his skill set and size, almost never throws a hit, rarely sees a penalty kill, and has been point per game a whopping once in his career. At 28 years old, I wouldn’t expect any massive breakouts. Yes, he’d get a boost by being on a line with quality linemates (theoretically – working with Jeff Carter appears to be a bust), but players who get hyped up as much has he does should be able to put up elite points in spite of who they have, not because of them. And at 7.8M a year long term, with a definite overpayment of talent required to get him (he is after all, the all time face of the Blue Jackets, and their captain).

In fact, putting those two paragraphs above me together – maybe Rick Nash should go to Anaheim for one of Perry or Ryan. It would probably suit both teams better than a deal with Toronto.

Eric Staal is similar to Nash, except he actually did have a gargantuan year where he did carry his team on his back. The issue is – it’s been 5 years since then, and he’s playing like a shell of himself now. Reclamation project? Sure. But do you throw 8.25 PER SEASON at a reclamation project? Especially one who is, yet again, probably the face of the Hurricanes since the team moved from Hartford, even though he’s only been around for about half the years? This one isn’t even as unlikely, it’s just extremely risky. This is a market where you get ripped to shreds for not performing to your dollar figure starting at around a 2.5M contract. Staal makes triple that, and his play this year reflects a guy who makes half that, if not less.

Stastny of all options seems the most logical, but even then, Colorado is in no rush to rid themselves of him, and he still makes over 6 million. Which begs the question – when people want to trade picks, prospects, and young players, where is this cap money coming from? The Leafs aren’t exactly the Jets or Islanders.

Personally, I feel even if you get rid of overpayments and salaries and all of that, going after the above players doesn’t fit the teams actual needs right now. After all, when a team is 7th in goals for and 4th in powerplay percentage, perhaps the problem isn’t in how good at scoring your top forwards are? Yes, it’s easy to say that Toronto can score away their problems if they stack every line up as a scoring line, but this also isn’t NHL12, and I’m saying that strategically, finacially, and accounting for player values.

Toronto’s key need is to fix the fact that they’re 25th in goals against and 30th on the penalty kill. The penalty kill being so bad that it’s affected to overall goals against. Toronto is a below average 19th in even strength goals against, 28th in 4-on-5 goals allowed, and 30th in 3-on-5 goals allowed.

Personally, my solution isn’t in the top six. I’m fine with the idea of not getting big name first line wingers right now, considering the Leafs have, you know the highest scoring 1st line winger combination in the league. The first line centre market is non existant, and there’s been a fair bit of support scoring. Basically, the solution isn’t goals. It’s trying to fix the goals against.

At the same time, one has to remember this is a team with a young core, and you don’t want vets to get in the way long term – this is a low-cost, quick fix scenario. Players that will help the current situation out a bit, then leave it up to Burke if he wants them around longer or if the kids can take their place.

On forward, the guy I want to go for is a penalty kill specialist. While not the player he used to be while a member of Brian Burke’s cup winning 2007 Anaheim Ducks, he’s still a very effective player that racks up significant PK time for his team and is easily their best forward in that regard. He’s not a liability 5-on-5, though his production isn’t that high. He’s a UFA at the end of the year, and he’s playing on a team that was expected to do well this season but failed to reach those expectations, at miserable porportions.

If your guess was Columbus Blue Jackets Centre Samuel Pahlsson, you’re correct! If you’re sitting there, going “wait, I thought it was Montreal Canadiens Left Winger Travis Moen!” then fear not, because you were also spot on in this regard. Both players could probably had at a minimal expense and would be a huge boost to a struggling penalty kill. Pahlsson leads Columbus in penalty kill time, whereas Moen is 2nd to Tomas Plekanec on Montreal. Despite the teams they’re on having horrible seasons, Pahlsson has managed to have a +2 at this piont in the year, and Moen’s got a decent enough -1. As well as having the ability to help out now, these two would be fantastic mentors to the ones who will eventually take their place in the position – remember that this is a team with literally zero over-30 presence in the roster. They’ve got their cup rings, and they have a wealth of knowledge. Why not tap in to that for a few months?

Next up is the defence. At first glance, bringing Hal Gill back into Blue and White doesn’t seem like the worst idea in the world, seeing as he eats up some of the top penalty kill numbers in the league (ask Pittsburgh how crucial he was for them after he was sent their way), but with all of that said, he’s anotehr large, immobile defencema, which the Leafs have plenty of. I’d rather have someone who while not offensive, still has a bit of mobility to them. Again, without sacrificing much long term, having them to help out and mentor temporarily before the decision is made whether they’re needed. That’s where Barret  Jackman seems perfect, another solid defensive defenceman who is a pending UFA, but seeing St. Louis’ success this year, I have my doubts that he’d be pried from their hands easily. Willie Mitchell could be another potential target for the same reason, though this would require Los Angeles to fall off in the coming weeks. Similar is the case of Bryce Salvador out of New Jersey. Really, the search for a quality defensive defenceman who doesn’t get in the way of Toronto’s long term plans may be a tough one, with most options either having several yers left on their deals, or being part of teams that would prefer to keep them at this point.

Which leads to to the only big-swing option that makes some sense to me, and that’s Ryan Suter. Suter is a UFA this year, and Nashville has a lot of decision making to make between him and Shea Weber. Unlike the others, he’s a better overall player, and a younger one as well. If there’s anyone who’s worth paying a lot in terms of assets for that could be on the market, it’s him. Rather that supplementing a strength, he repairs a need.

At the same time, though – if the lower cost guys can’t be had, maybe it’s worth holding our breath a little on the defensive core? There’s a lot of talent throughout the system that’s progressing nicely. A playoff push is a luxury at this point, not a requirement, and if it breaks the bank on the teams long term chances, it’s just not worth it.

The last area to look at is in net, but as consistantly inconsistant as everybody has been this year, I think that’s a closer to the deadline issue, after you work on shoring up the penalty kill. Removing the penalty kill from the equation, Reimer becomes a top tier goalie statistically, and Gustavsson remains mediocre – but that’s decent-ish if he’s going to the backup. If a veteran backup could be had at for a low cost (hey – maybe somebody believes in Jonas enough to give a pending UFA of their own up in exchange so they can work on signing him), then it may be worth looking into.

In short, the position the Leafs are in right now is a luxury more than a requirement, when the teams youth is considered. Drastic measures could be disasterous, especially if taken in the wrong direction, which seems to be what going all in on highly paid scoring talent would be. If you have an achillies heel, it makes more sense to protect that weakness than to further strengthen your fists. Not only do people prefer the fist-strengthen strategy, they’re willing to rid of ALL of the leg armour to do it. But forget the metaphors – the point is that acquiring some temporary defensive ability, especially up front is the best chance the team has at enjoying some short term benefit without risking a lot in the the long run.

Then again, Burke is about as predictable as 20 sided dice. I guess we’ll see the outcome in a few weeks.

PS – Dion Phaneuf has mind blowing plumber swag.