With the Leafs having a forward core that’s been described as absolutely brutal, and one of the most pathetic that has ever graced the NHL from a team that wasn’t within its first 2-3 years of existence, there is a lot of hype over what Brian Burke will do with this roster that has promise for the future, but no zing for the now. People are undecided if the big move is going to happen via trade, or via free agency. Personally, I think we’re going to see a little bit of both. Do I have any idea whatsoever the results are going to be? No clue. But do I have any wants?

Absolutely. In fact, I have the biggest want, with my eyes entirely on the big prize. Specifically, I want the man who just might be the best free agent in NHL history, all factors considered (more on that later). Of course, I’m talking about #17 of the New Jersey Devils (you know him better as the only relavent thing the Atlanta Thrashers have had in years) Ilya Kovalchuk.

Now, I know what you’re thinking “Jeff, first off, best UFA ever? You’re crazy. Secondly, he’s going to want too much money, thirdly, he’s going to the KHL, fourth, Burke doesn’t want him, and five, why would he want to come here?”

All fair arguments. But I’m still going to try to squash them.

Best UFA Ever?

Just want to get this out of the way, because even though it has nothing to do with my Leafs argument, its still a statement I made that I’m going to stick with.

Absolutely. The fact is, the whole “star players hitting free agency in their primes” thing is a pretty new concept. Wayne Gretzky was 16 years into his NHL career before he hit the market. Guy Lafleur was 38. Bobby Orr, while not old, was too crippled to really play hockey. And most of the other notable free agents of yore signed to the WHA, not in the NHL.

Really, you have to look at the last few years, and the only UFA’s that hold a candle to him in my eyes are Paul Kariya in 2003, Zdeno Chara in 2006, Peter Forsberg in 2005, and Marian Hossa in 2008. How does he beat them? Forsberg was showing himself to be incredibly injury prone, and was adament on signing with either Colorado or Philadelphia. Kariya was just finally recovering from previous injuries when rocked by Scott Stevens weeks before during the Stanley Cup finals. Chara and Hossa were great picks, but (at least at the time), were not considered of the prestige that Ilya Kovalchuk has right now. When one combines age, skill, and health, you really can’t choose anyone but Kovalchuk as the highest profile free agent the NHL has ever seen.

Now, onto the stuff that actually matters for the sake of this argument.

Burke Doesn’t Want Him

The most frequently mentioned thing that I hear is that Brian Burke doesn’t want him. And you know what, its also the most easily backed up – Burke has commented twice in the last few months regarding Kovalchuk, and both times, they’ve been negative. The issue with taking this as a conclusive “Yeah, not coming there” lies in two ways – the fact that Burke may be dodging around words, and the fact that Burke has a past history of saying things and doing the exact opposite.

On the former – pay close attention what he actually says in the two comments he made about him. In the first, we get this.

“I’m not interested in committing that amount of money, for that term, for a player….I’m not making that phone call…”

Which was in response to him rejecting Atlanta’s 10 years at League Maximum offer. Which nobody in their right mind would sign him too, and I think that Ilya expects to get that, rather he rejected it as a means to get out of Atlanta (more on that later). Burke isn’t saying he has no interest in him with this, what he is saying is that he has no interest in signing Kovalchuk to a contract nothing short of insane.

Yesterday, ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun had a quote from Leafs GM Brian Burke basically squashing any speculation his team would be in the mix for Kovalchuk, saying simply: “We’re not going to be involved in that race.”

This one is a little bit harder to defend, but it can still be defended. The key word that Burke used here was race, which generally gets used when referring to a potential bidding war, in which case, we have another completely logical statement from a GM that could still want him. He won’t pay him a ton of money over a super long term, and he’s not prepared to get into a bidding war. That doesn’t mean he won’t give him an offer. He’d be stupid not to, even if its an extreme low-ball offer just in case it’s been his lifelong dream to wear the blue and white (unlikely, but still, worth a try).

On top of this, Burke isn’t exactly the most honest about his interests sometimes. Remember back when the rumours first started occurring that he would become our next General Manager? Me too, I remember him strictly and bluntly denying that this was going to happen, and that he was happy in Anaheim and that he planned to be there for a long time. True to his word, he’s currently our General Manager. How about the time where he said Tomas Kaberle was going nowhere, that he’s in it for the long haul, they absolutely won’t shop him, and they’ll start looking at an extension when the time comes? Do you need a reminder of what’s happening as we speak?

One can even look further back into his career. This is the man who said he wasn’t going to trade Sergei Fedorov shortly after he became the GM of Anaheim. In Vancouver, he said he wasn’t going to fire Mike Keenan (and did nearly immediately), and that they were not going to give into Pavel Bure’s trade demands, and that they’d out-wait him.

Really, the only time that Brian Burke has EVER been upfront about big news in his organizations was when he threw that press conference last year declaring that the Leafs were going to attempt to trade up for John Tavares. He even said during said press conference that it was a departure from his normal methods of being the silent killer, so to speak. And guess what? It failed miserably. Throw in the fact that he’s had enough tampering accusations thrown at him in the past year, and its no wonder that Burke would want to keep such a high profile move under wraps to the point of denying there’s anything happening, even though he has no reason to deny it.

I mean, I could be wrong here, and he could legitimately want nothing to do with Ilya Kovalchuk. But you can’t rule out the possibility that its all smoke and mirrors.

KHL Concerns are Unfounded

There’s a lot of concern that Kovalchuk will bolt for the Kontinental Hockey League to play for SKA St. Petersburg, the richest team in the league that’s offering him a ton of money (seriously, if they paid him in 50 dollar bills, depending on his signing bonus, it would weigh nearly a ton). There’s a few reasons for this. One, he’s Russian and everybody knows that every single Russian in the NHL is going to sign in the KHL as soon as their contract is over (watch out for Ovechkin…he’s a little over a decade away!!!1). The fact that his agent is being a dickhead smart negotiator and mentioning its a possibility doesn’t help things. And thirdly, THATS A LOT OF MONEY. For those who don’t know, the St. Petersburg offer is 3 years, 14 million PER YEAR. With an unknown signing bonus. And its nearly tax free.

Financially, no team in the NHL could match that if they wanted to due to the league maximum salary expected to be $11.75 million this year, and thats before taxes, escrow, and a bunch of other stuff. They have no chance to give Kovalchuk more money than St. Petersburg. So if its all about the money for Ilya, as everyone seems to think, why hasn’t he left yet?

Because it isn’t. Either that, or he thinks the KHL will collapse financially in those 3 years. Or both. Either way, if he hasn’t signed now, the only way I see him leaving is if nobody offers him a remotely decent contract in the NHL.

To add to this, and to add to the Toronto perspective, one can look at endorsements. You’re not exactly going to be rolling in endorsement dough in Russia, just as you aren’t in most NHL markets. But Toronto’s a whole different ball game. If a player of Kovalchuk’s stature signs here, they will no doubt be at WORST 3rd in the league in endorsement money. Nobody’s touching Crosby, but its possible that Kovalchuk could theoretically leapfrog Alexander Ovechkin in terms of money made from endorsements per year merely on the fact he’s a Toronto Maple Leafs player and Ovy isn’t. Canadian businesses would eat him up in a way he’d be more than happy with. Granted, I have my doubts that he can parlay an NHL contract and endorsement deals into more than the KHL will offer, but it’ll certainly bring it closer to the numbers he’s being offered. Signing in a small market would ruin any hopes of this for him, though, so this isn’t an NHL-wide thing.

More On Money – Born To Get Paid?

Another huge issue when it comes to Kovalchuk is the matter of how much money does he actually want out of the NHL. Crazy KHL offers aside, there is a lot of talk that he’s specifically out there for best offer. So much so, that he rejected a contract offer from Atlanta of 10 years, 113.4 million dollars (League Max). Now, what this seems to have most people thinking, is that he’s a money grubbing dick who cares nothing about the paycheque. Naturally, I think the contrary. He knows for a fact a deal that brings him to the tail end of his career for an exhortation amount of money is not one that you reject if you’re in it for the dollars, because the only people that will offer you 10 years via free agency want to do it to lower your average cap hit. Conversely, when the highest paid player in hockey is Alexander Ovechkin at a 9.5 million dollar cap hit, and Sidney Crosby makes 8.7 million, there is no way that even with UFA overpayment that ANY team goes over either of those.

The real reason he rejected that massive contract? Its simple – its not the money, its the place. He simply no longer wanted to be a member of the Atlanta Thrashers, and having a brutal contract negotiation period, while a weak way to go, is better than being the team captain that demanded a trade out of the city. Making contract negotiations into an awkward mess plays better to his persona, and at least gives the Thrashers an opportunity to not look like their hands were tied towards trading him.

With this considered, everyone’s reacting to the obvious – why hasn’t New Jersey signed him? They did pay a ton for him in January, after all. There are a few things to consider. One, they’re working on that Semin for Brodeur trade (just kidding, and seriously, anyone who believes Eklund on this is a fool). One, their biggest issue right now is defence, and their by-far top defenceman Paul Martin is looking towards testing the market. So on top of trying to convince him otherwise, they have to look at making a move for a replacement (TOMAS KABERLE TO TEH DEVILS!!!111). To make things worse, keep in mind that Kovalchuk would not distinctively be number one Left Winger on the team. Much like the Caps have LW’s #1 and #4 in the NHL, and are rumored to be shopping Alexander Semin (FOR BRODEUR!!!11) due to his contract status at the moment (1 year left until UFA), the Devils currently have the #2 and #3 Left Wings in the world (though nobody knows which goes which, its a close one depending on what you want), and with Zach Parise being the next Captain and Face of the Franchise, I don’t think Ilya “Rental acquired to put the team over the top, but it turns out the team couldn’t get out of round 1″ Kovalchuk is the big issue on ol’ Lou’s mind. Add to the fact that Parise isn’t far off of needing an extension himself, and you know exactly why New Jerseys talks aren’t going well. Its not him, its just that the team has more pressing issues on their mind, and extending a rental to start a “who plays on which line” debate isn’t exactly their most necessary issue at the moment.

He Wouldn’t Want To Be Here

There’s a lot of talk that Toronto might not be the place for him, because he wouldn’t want to be here. Minus the fact he’d be long and away the best player, while still having a medicore but improving supporting cast, there are a ton of reasons why he’d want to be a member of this team.

First off, the obvious. He’s rumored to be rather interested in this team, at least according to James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail. I’ll let the line speak for itself.

What’s interesting about the Kovalchuk talk is that I’ve been told pretty definitively that the Leafs were among the teams he was interested in. While the player (who is under contract to the Devils until July 1) and his camp remain quiet on all this, the general feeling around the league is that Toronto was at least among the teams in the running.

Scondly, is the attention that he’d get. I don’t know about you, but to me, Kovalchuk seems to have a demeanor, at least on ice, that indicates that he wouldn’t be opposed to being the centre of attention. I mean, this is a guy who’s most infamous for celebrating a goal before scoring it in the World Junior Hockey Championship. Calling him a guy that would fit into a big market may be presumptuous, but its entirely possible, and leans towards probable with the way his personality leans. If this is the case, there is no better place to be Mr. Everything than Toronto. Especially when you’re probably the 2nd best goal scorer in the game, on a team that historically hasn’t had many big time goal scorers (I think we can still count 50 goal scorers on one hand, may be wrong though). Toronto craves a megastar. We still talk about the year that Doug Gilmour was a megastar on a frequent basis, and that was 17 years ago and it probably won’t stop any time soon.

Put it to you this way – if he scores 40 a year for the next 5 years, which would be low for him – he’s averaged 46 in his last 5, he’ll be in the discussion as one of the greatest goal scorers in the history of this team. He’ll be up there in the “most talented player to ever wear the blue and white” discussion. More Kovalchuk jerseys will be owned by Leafs fans than the total amount of Thrashers jerseys sold ever, of any player. He’d be an instant legend.

Toronto as a whole is an attractive city to be a player in too – while it doesn’t have the glitz and glamour of a New York City, or other-possiblity-to-sign-him Los Angeles, it’s still one of the biggest and best cities in North America. If he’s into being part of the Russian scene, there’s a big Russian community in Toronto that could catch his favour. Add to the fact that if he remotely meets expectations, that he’d hear “its on the house” often enough to equal the theoretical KHL contract, and the city looks good for him.

Why We Need Him

There’s a good chance that I still haven’t convinced you at this point. Rather than give up, lets look at the only thing left that really would concern you – and thats why exactly would the Leafs really want to sign him? To me, there’s a few incredibly obvious reasons, and for the sake of this argument, lets ignore the thing that completely gets in the way – salary. That’s another argument all together. Lets just look at him as a hockey player.

First off, the Leafs depth on Kovalchuk’s own Left Wing is quite possibly the worst in the history of the National Hockey League. Lets go through their Left Wingers, in order of points last year. Alexei Ponikarovsky? Pittsburgh Penguin. Nikolai Kulemin? Right Winger his entire life until the Phaneuf trade took care of next player on the list, Niklas Hagman, a member of the Calgary Flames. Jason Blake is an Anaheim Duck. Viktor Stalberg is another natural RW converted by having no choice. Caputi may be on the Marlies next year, Sjostrom is quite strictly a checking line forward, and if Jay Rosehill is on the team, he certainly won’t be playing top line minutes. The entire reasonable “depth” of this team on this wing consists of two unnatural players for it, one who still doesn’t have a contract, and the other who shouldn’t be in the top 6. The Leafs are no doubt going to have to sign or trade for a first line Left Winger, and if you have to do that, you might as well go for a man who at worst is the 3rd best at it in the game, but typically considered #2. (Could always try proposing Finger for Ovechkin again and see how fast McPhee hangs up, though).

Secondarily, even if you ignore the wing naturalism and who goes where, the team is desperately in need of scoring anyway. Five of their top 10 scoring forwards this year were traded at some point. Which isn’t exactly good for a team that was 25th in the NHL as-is in Goals For. Phil Kessel can only do so much, and bringing in a guy like Kovalchuk who will get you 40 goals if not 50 per year is the most braindead obvious logical thing that you can do on this team.

Signing him also brings a definitive face of the franchise to the table up front – Phil Kessel, as fantastic as he is, is both not going to be a player at Kovalchuk’s level (while he can be a Star Forward, he wont to a Superstar or Elite status like Kovalchuk has), and will take a very, very long time to shake the negative stigma that the trade to acquire him has put on him (unless Seguin busts, then we’re cool, right? RIGHT?).

Conversely, this also allows the pressure to be taken off of Kessel, both on ice and off. Off ice, he doesn’t have as much pressure to meet expectations, which are getting higher and higher by the hour these days. Already a shy guy, he can fall back out of the spotlight in the city while still being a fantastic player. On ice, you’ve now eliminated the “cover Kessel, because Bozak just passes and Kulemin just grinds” defensive strategy that 29 teams are surely looking at employing next year, if they haven’t already started (you wonder why Kessel’s production trailed off towards the end of the year? While lack of fitness due to having not training camp doesn’t help, the other teams realizing he’s the only one with talent didn’t exactly benefit his cause either). Kovalchuk and Kessel comine for two IMMENSE threats to the other team. Even if broken up onto two lines, thats still one of them not being put against a shutdown line.

And as if we need any more on-ice reasoning to get him, remember that the Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that is moving their biggest powerplay weapon in Tomas Kaberle, and they need to bring some offensive firepower to that point.

As it so happens, Kovalchuk has for years upon years been one of those 2 minute powerplay forwards, who play PP1 up front, and as they tire, move to defence. Alexander Ovechkin is known for it too, but Kovalchuk, among active players, is the originator. You already have a guarantee that Beauchemin – Phaneuf will be the pair on PP1, with Beauchemin going back to being the passer after a year off in this regard, but what about PP2? Carl Gunnarsson will surely be passsing, but then what? Do we really want Luke Schenn or Mike Komisarek on the powerplay? Phil Kessel could theoretically go there, but Phil Kessel is a nightmare if he messes up on the point, not to mention the fact that snapshots aren’t really what you want to fire from downtown, and a mediocre slapshot prevents him from doing much else.

Conclusion

There is no doubt in anybodys mind that Ilya Kovalchuk s a very special player. He’s one of the best in the world, top 3 in his position. We’re a fanbase that always mentions the want for a high profile UFA, and the highest profile of them all is within our grasp, if we want him to be. There’s even speculation that he wants to be here, as incorrect as it can potentially be.

But the question remains, do we want him? Does Burke want him? How much does he want? Are his eyes set on home? And many others. Hopefully, my opinions have swayed you somewhat to say that its not as bad as we make it out to be in terms of negativity to him coming here or not. Do I legitimately think that he’s here on July 1st? Who knows. I’d love to see it, personally, but as much as I’d like to pretend I know these things, I don’t.

And how much will he eventually want here? Personally, I think it’ll be between 8 and 8.5 million a year if Burke is adamant on keeping the length at 5 years maximum. Less if not. Again though, just speculation.

The point is, while we can speculate all we want, we in the end don’t know. Those who declare him to be in the bag are about as bad as the ones who say its impossible. The only thing that seperates them is that optimism is generally the best approach to have in a situation. And god knows this team needs a bit more optimism. So, I say, lets look positive. We have an amazing player here within our grasp, and there’s every possiblity in the world that he just might be here in 2 weeks. Rather than brush it off without a thought, can we just get a little excited for once?

Just a bit of food for thought to wrap this up. I legitimately think the biggest reason that the fans don’t want to see Kovalchuk in a Leafs uniform is not in fact because they don’t want him, but because they don’t want to buy into it and have their hopes squashed. There’s soemthing in their head saying “there’s no way the Leafs can get Ilya Kovalchuk, so lets start convincing ourselves of why”. Instead of doing that, lets look back a year. If I told you a year ago that the Toronto Maple Leafs would have Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel on this team, you’d laugh in my face.

Those turned out alright. Maybe this one can happen too.

PS: Appologies for the length of this monstrosity of a blog. I’ve been wanting to get around to this one for a while, and with all the procrastinating, I wanted to make it count. Hopefully 90% of you didn’t scroll down to here after giving up, or even worse, gave up and never saw this message. At least there wasn’t another chart with a crazy explanation, am I right? By the way, if anyone points out that Halak shouldn’t be in net in that screenshot, I made it on Wednesday, okay?!? Comment away.

]]> http://leafshq.com/2010/06/18/ilya-kovalchuk-isnt-that-impossible/feed/ 17 http://leafshq.com/2010/06/11/confirmed-new-jerseys-out-on-the-14th-dion-to-be-named-captain/ http://leafshq.com/2010/06/11/confirmed-new-jerseys-out-on-the-14th-dion-to-be-named-captain/#comments Fri, 11 Jun 2010 19:26:15 +0000 Jeff Veillette http://leafshq.com/?p=744 As expected, many sites are spilling the beans on the exact date of the Leafs jersey unveiling, and confirming that yes, Dion Phaneuf will be the next captain of the team. There isn’t really much I can add to it, other than show you the mockups again, and proclaim that Dion being the captain is the most awesome thing in the history of awesome, so here’s some confirmation quotes.

Darren Dreger, TSN

The 5 W’s

Who is he?

Kenny Ryan is the first winger to be picked in the Brian Burke era, and one who fits the mold that Burke is known for. Ryan is an 18 year old Right Winger from Franklin, Michigan. A right handed shot, the 6’0, 209lb Ryan may not tower over the average player, but he definitely doesn’t let that stop him from using his body to his advantage. Though he has nopro experience just yet, Ryan is playing in the Memorial Cup as we speak with the Windsor Spitfires.

What did his stats look like this year?

Ryan had a respectable year for a first time junior player, getting 35 points in 52 games on an absolutely stacked Spitfires roster (with players like Taylor Hall, Adam Henrique, Greg Nemisz, Eric Wellwood, Dale Mitchell, and others in the way of his pursuit of more minutes). 14 of those 35 points were goals, with the other 21 obviously being assists. He added 33 penalty minutes to that total. He has 2 goals in this years Memorial Cup.

When/how did the Leafs acquire him?

Ryan was selected 50th overall in the second round of the 2009 Entry Draft, the first of the Burke era. He was picked with our first second round pick, Jesse Blacker being selected 8 spots later, and Nazem Kadri being picked 43 spots previous.

Where has he played?

Prior to playing for the Spitfires last year, Ryan was a member of the revered United States National Under-18 Team, playing 3 years with them, each year inching closer to a point per game pace. He had 27 goals and 22 assists in 62 games in his draft year. He actually started this season with Boston College, but decided at the last second that Junior Hockey suited him better and moved on to the Spits.

Why was he acquired?

Ryan embodies many of the characters that GM Brian Burke is widely considered to look for in a player, being a scorer that uses his size and doesn’t shy away from physical play.

What’s been Said…

HockeysFuture.com

Ryan is a goal scorer, and works hard to get pucks as well. Projects as a second or third-line forward.

NHL Central Scouting’s Gary Eggleston

Ryan is a solid skater who is strong on his skates, has good balance and his hard to knock off his feet. Has good overall speed and works hard in all zones. He is strong in the corners, is aware of defensive responsibilities and backchecks well. Ryan plays a rugged two-way game.

NHL.com

His childhood hockey idol was Darren McCarty because “he played with so much energy and grit” and his most memorable hockey moment was playing against Russia, in Russia, at the Four Nations tournament with the Under-17 U.S. team.

In The System

Whats his role expected to be next year?

Ryan will most likely be playing another year with the Spitfires, or somewhere in the OHL for sure. He’s too young (North American Age Rule) for the AHL and isn’t NHL-ready justs yet.

Has he exceeded or failed to reach the expectations had of him since being acquired?

He’s met them, but there hasn’t really been much of a time to gauge his development that much anyway. He’s only 18, and has only been in the system a year, so to expect anything out of him right away is a bit much.

Where is he ranked in the Leafs depth chart for his position?

Hockeysfuture.com has him 3th (4th, but they have Hanson as a prospect still, so we’ll assume third), behind Jimmy Hayes, and Dale Mitchell. His ranking is a 6.5C, meaning he could be a decent forward, but nothing to write home about.

The Big Question

What does the future hold for him? Does he have a shot at being a contributing full time Leaf?

Absolutely! Whether he’s a top 6 forward or not remains to be seen, but his style of play screams ability to be at least a decent 3rd or 4th liner. I could see him being a Leaf for sure in 3-4 years, if not sooner. Just not next year.

Anything Else?

Random Facts

NHL.com asked him about various things before last year’s draft. Here they are.

NHL Team: Calgary Flames
NHL Player: Jarome Iginla
Shootout move: “Top glove or backhand”
Goal celebration: “Glass jump or arm sweep”
Video game: NHL ‘09
Movie: Never Back Down
TV Show: Home Improvement
Actor: Will Smith
Group: Dave Matthews
Website: Youtube.com
Book: The last lecture
Home cooked meal: Pasta
Sport (other than hockey): Swimming
Activity away from the rink: Basketball
Place to shop: Finish line
Place to visit: Florida

See Them In Action

Alright, this isn’t actually “in action”, but here’s friend of LeafsHQ SteveDangle interviewing him a few weeks ago

Click here to view the embedded video.