The ensuing reaction from Leafs nation was, unsurprisingly, vociferous, loud and, of course, in many corners of the internet, barely literate.

Luckily, there were some whose opinion was more muted. These people were able to realize the obvious, that trading Kaberle just for the sake of trading him made little sense (and if there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about trades making little sense it’s the Leafs).

That being said, not moving the long time Leaf does present some issues for Burke moving forward. With Kaberle still on the roster, the Leafs now have almost $28 million tied up in their blue line, almost half the current salary cap. On top of this, only Kaberle’s $4.25 million is off the books next summer, a number that will likely be absorbed back into the blue line on raises for Luke Schenn and Carl Gunnarsson.

Burke’s stated goal is to get the team better, now. He’s unlikely to be targeting first rounders, nor guys not ready for prime time. This means, like Phil Kessel last season, he may have to target a RFA, with a decent resume already under their belt. Of course the upshot of acquiring a RFA is that you have to re-sign them, and like they found out with Kessel last year, it’s not always a cheap process. Once this player is acquired the roster will be locked in for at least the next two seasons. Presuming players such as Tyler Bozak are re-signed, the current crop of forwards, and defensemen (minus Kaberle) are all, for the most part, here to stay. As Brian Burke says more than anyone, contracts are tough to move in the cap-era NHL, and considering almost the entire roster is now in Toronto because of Burke, moves are even less likely.

That makes the next couple of moves critical for Burke. The team, his team, will be locked in and an absence of results and the vultures may start circling sooner than he thinks. So then the final question. How does Burke acquire this forward. His depth on the blue line will have to play a role, to save cap space and too not hurt the prospect pool too much. But Kaberle has a NTC, and the interest, even if he wanted to move them, in Komisarek and even Phaneuf may be muted.

In other words, don’t get too comfortable Mr. Beauchemin. More will have to be added for the Leafs to get the player they’re looking for, but if I were Beauchemin, I wouldn’t invest in real estate in the GTA.

I look at the Leafs roster for the upcoming season, and I cant help but feeling somewhat optimistic. I really do like what Brian Burke has done with the team so far with the addition of Versteeg, and Armstrong. But the reason I have optimism isn’t just those signings, it is the blueline that we have in place, that has me thinking this could be a good season for the Leafs. It doesn’t take an expert to see that the team is missing some offensive firepower, but I really do believe that the defensive core will be enough to counteract that. I really do not think people understand how strong the Maple Leafs blueline is. The one knock I have against it, is that the cost for our 8 defensemen under contract costs 27,775,000$.

That’s an average of 3.47 million per defensemen, which is definitely too much to pay on average for a defensemen. However, when looking at the fact that Burke could bury Finger’s contract in the minors, and the fact that we are trying to trade Kaberle for a top 6-forward, that would be almost 8 million dollars off of the salary cap right there so it’s not as bad as it looks. But this article will not be to argue how much of a bargain Toronto’s d-men are or if they are worth the price. This will only be about the quality and the talent of the Leafs blueline, and why I truly believe that the Leafs have one of the best defensive cores in the league. With the exception of Chicago’s top 4 (Keith, Campbell, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson), Philadelphia’s top 2 pairings (Pronger, Timonen, Cobourn, Meszaros, and even Carle), and Vancouver’s all-around depth (Hamhuis, Erhoff, Edler, Bieksa, Salo, and Ballard) nobody else in the league can compare to the Leafs talent on D.

First we will start off with Tomas Kaberle. I was waiting to write this article until after he was traded, but since nothing seems imminent on that front, I will include him for the time being. I really do not believe that the Leafs will start the season with Kaberle on the roster, but if they do he truly is one of the premier puck-moving defensemen in the league. Just look at his starts over the last few years, not only is he consistent, but he has also been producing at a premiere level. If you look at the 5 seasons since the lockout, Kaberle has averaged .68 points per game(in 82 games that would project to over 56.1 points) as he put up 258 points in 377 games. He was also an all-star in 2007, 2008, and 2009.

Kaberle has proven that he is one of the best powerplay quarterbacks in the league, and has done so on a team desperately lacking firepower. And in my opinion he truly has one of the best stretch passes in the league, he could single-handedly send a forward on a breakaway if the defence give him a small window. That is one thing I will really miss about Kaberle if he is traded, is the offence that he brings; it will be sorely missed, especially in the transition game. However, with or without Kaberle, I truly do believe this blueline, will be the strongpoint of the team, and will make us an extremely hard team to match up against every single night.

If Kaberle is gone, his offence will be replaced by our new #1 defenseman and Captain, Dion Phaneuf. I have already written an article before on what Phaneuf is capable of doing offensively, and it is no secret that a few years ago he was an offensive juggernaut. Hopefully the added responsibility of being named Captain, will rejuvenate him and get him back to the level he was at when he put up 60 points in 07-08. So if people are asking who will replace the offence that we lose with Kaberle, the answer is #3. He has a cannon of a shot from the point, and demands enough respect, that he will leave other players open on the powerplay. Before going into a slump for the last 2 season, Dion put up 49, 50, 60, and 47 points respectively in the 4 seasons prior to that.

So it’s not as if it was a fluke result, and there is no reason to think that he will not be able to return to form. But not only can he contribute offensively, he also is an absolute monster on the blueline. Opposing forward will not be going for the stretch pass, or going for passes with their heads down, or crossing across the middle of the ice, because they know if they do there is a very good chance that they are going to get “PHANEUFED”. Not only is he extremely physical at the blueline, but he also is good at rubbing players out along the boards, and can block shots as well. With that strength he has he is very good at clearing away the front of the net.

As to where I believe we will get more offence from, I believe a lot of that could come from Francois Beauchemin. Many people might argue with me here, and point to the fact that he only had 26 points last year in a full season. However, during his best season with the Ducks he put up 34 points in only 61 games, good for 46 points over a full season. However, I will admit his overall offensive numbers with the ducks were not overly impressive, you have to remember that he was not getting #1 powerplay time, as he was on a team with both Pronger, and Niedermayer, two of the biggest minute-munchers in the league.

So if Kaberle leaves, I believe Beauch will team up with Phaneuf to join the #1 powerplay. And with his ability to pass, and the fact that he has a tremendous slapshot, will make him a very big asset on the blueline. Just last year he had 170 shots for the Leafs, and with him on one side and Phaneuf on the other, this will lead to a lot of problems for opposing goalies, if the Leafs could find a big body to get in front of the net. With 2 cannons from the point, our powerplay would have 2 essential keys to success right there. I do not see a see a 35+ point season as too much of a stretch for him, and I think we are going to see a much more offensive side to him if Kaberle gets traded.

The other player who I think has an offensive side to him that we haven’t seen yet, is Carl Gunnarsson. Last season in his first season in the NHL, he put up 15 points in 43 games. So if he stays at the same pace as last season and shows no growth, 30 points would be easily attainable. However, watching him play, he seems like he has a lot more to offer. And given his defensive responsibility, as he was a +8 on an awful team last season, there is no reason to believe that he will not get every opportunity to prove what he is capable of.

But his ability to make the right decisions, and play an almost error free game, will be a huge asset to this team, and eventually could become a great 2 way defenseman. I for one am looking forward to seeing this former 7th rounder, further develop his game, and try to prove that last season was not a fluke, and only a glimpse at what he is truly capable of.

Having said all of this, offensive output isn’t what I think is going to make this blueline one of the best in the league. What separates it to me from the rest of the league, is it’s defensive game, and the sandpaper. Which brings me to 2 other key players, Mike Komisarek and Luke Schenn. Komisarek is a 6’4, 245 pound defenseman, who plays every bit as big as he is. When he is on his game, he is one of the most physical players in the league. He has been injured recently, and ever since the Lucic fight, people seem to think he isn’t quite the player he used to be. I don’t care what anybody says there is no way that losing a fight, no matter how badly, can completely change a player.

If you ask me why he has been off the past few seasons, is not because of the fight, it is simply because he was playing injured. Now that his shoulder will be fully healed after receiving the surgery, I think we are going to see the old Mike Komisarek that Montreal fell in love with. Everybody points to the 08-09 season to where his game really took a step down, however, even in his worst statistical year, he still managed to have 191 hits, and finished in the top 5 in shot blocks. And last year in another “off-year” he managed to have 85 hits in 34 games, which would have been 205 hits over an 82 game schedule, which also would have been in the top 10 in the league.

Those were his stats during an off-year, imagine what he is capable of in a great season. Just look at 07-08, Komisarek had 266 hits (by far the most by a defenseman), and also led the league in blocked shots with 227. So on top of his game he was the best shot blocking and best hitting defenseman in the league. That is the 2 most important things to judge how a player is defensively in my mind, and although he may not contribute offensively all the time, defensively when he is on the top of his game he is an absolute powerhouse. A full 82 games of a healthy Mike Komisarek will drastically improve the Leafs penalty kill which was absolutely horrible last season.

So now teams will not only have to watch out for Phaneuf flattening them, they will also have to look out for a healthy Mike Komisarek, and when those 2 aren’t on the ice, there will still be one more player they should look out for. That would be Luke Schenn. Luke Schenn took the league by storm in his rookie year, and apparently didn’t get the memo that defenseman aren’t supposed to be able to make the jump to the NHL right away. However, last year, he took a step back, and seemed to struggle a bit at times. But as soon as Phaneuf arrived to the Leafs, Schenn’s game began to pick back up.

Schenn grew up watching Phaneuf, and tried to model his game after him, and it seemed that when the two were playing together, Schenn was a completely different player. And the only place to go for Schenn is up. Watching him, there is nothing flashy about his game, but he racks up the hits, he blocks shots, and he has an incredibly active stick. He looks calm at all times, even during his rookie year, and once he reaches his peak, I truly do believe he will be an absolute force on the blueline for years to come. He will never be the kind of player who is a powerplay quarterback, or contributes offensively every night, but he will be a great shut down dman. So I am really hoping that the Leafs do not trade him away (even if it was for the always brought up Bobby Ryan).

Phaneuf, Schenn, Beauchemin, Komisarek, Gunnarsson, and Lebda (and hypothetically still Kaberle) the leafs have an inordinate amount of talent on the blueline, and will be a force to be reckoned with. With prospects like Aulie, Mikus, Blacker, waiting in the wings, the future looks bright as well. And adding a guy like Colby Armstrong, will make Toronto an even less fun team to play against. I think Toronto is a few moves away from truly being a contender, but defence wins championships and the best offence is a good defence and I truly do believe that we are in great hands in that area at the moment. Whether or not everything will come together this year, I cannot be sure. But one thing I am sure about is the fact that opposing teams, and especially forwards, will not enjoy playing against the Toronto Maple Leafs for years to come.

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Did you know that there are twenty-nine fan bases out there that think that adding Tomas Kaberle to their roster is the worst thing that could ever happen? If you read the comments in Jeff’s article yesterday, you definetly would have known that Capitals fans think it’s a bad idea. If you’ve ever taken a glance at HF Boards you’ve probably noticed that everytime Kaberle’s name comes up, which it does a lot, there is an argument made that Toronto is overvaluing him, and at best he’s worth a salary dump forward. While I agree he’s not landing Bobby Ryan for us, I don’t think the deal is Kaberle + for Jason Pominville either. 

Toronto fans add to this craziness. We can not wait to get rid of this guy. We’ve picked apart every roster in the league to try and determine his best value. The past to seasons we’ve had near heart attacks when he won’t shoot the puck on the powerplay and in some cases thrown beer cans at the TV when he won’t pick up the man in front of his own net (especially in overtime.) Leafs fans have devalued him down to the simple role of being a power play quarterback. Honestly, that is still his biggest selling point, but don’t ignore the fact that is he’s rarely caught out of position, he’s one of the speediest guys in the league in reverse, and he can move the puck smartly out of his own zone. A trait that Beauchemin and many of the other Leafs defensemen seemed to struggle with last season.

The fact of the matter is Kaberle is a great defenseman. He’s not a superstar, or a Norris candidate defenseman, but as much as other teams want to debate it, he’s a top pairing guy on 90% of the teams in the league. How many top pairing defensemen are available for $4.25 Million, that are not on entry level deals? If you can name any of them I’m sure they are not at Kaberle’s level. Burke’s argument for not trading Tomas makes a lot of sense, in that players like him are not made available too often, and the Leafs can not replace what he does. It’s true, while Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, and Beauchemin have elements of Kaberle’s pucking moving and offensive game, none of them can truly match it. And although I’m not saying Kaberle is Dan Boyle, but Dan Boyle was the player of similar talent to be moved via trade, and he did not go cheap. The last defenseman like Kaberle to be signed as an UFA was Brian Campbell, and he definitely did not go cheap.

The good news for Leafs fans is that fan bases don’t make trades, GM’s do, and GM’s love Kaberle. If they didn’t Burke would not have received the number of offers that he has, and he wouldn’t be waiting on more to come in (very possibly some more tomorrow). GM’s see that Kaberle would be an asset to their lineup even if they do already employee Dan Boyle or Mike Green. It is fair for Burke to expect a solid roster player for someone who could be the impact player who changes an embarassing first round loss to the Habs into a lengthy playoff run, and I’m sure most GMs that can currently roll two or three lines of offense don’t mind doing some UFA patchwork on that to get a player that has been healthy his entire career (minus a Cam Janssen cheapshot), who consistently puts up 40-50 pts from the blueline, and is sound (not great) in the defensive zone.

With the number of penalties called in the league today, why would you not want someone who is going to increase your chances on the powerplay?  Leafs fans need to get over the idea that Kaberle was some how responsible for the teams failures, in fact he was one of the few bright spots. The reason he is leaving is that forwards need to be the teams priority now, and he is the best asset for landing a forward who can make a difference. Tomas Kaberle is a GREAT hockey player, and I for one will be sad to see him go.

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1. Is Kulemin worth a late 1^st Round Pick? And if so, do you move him at the draft instead of paying his ransom of $3,000,000 a season. I don’t think I’m too far out to lunch on this one. If Kris Versteeg is worth a first and prospect, I’d expect the same for Kulemin. His numbers aren’t as good as Versteeg, but he’s younger and I think he’ll actually pass the Versteeg offensively in the near future. Why wouldn’t you keep him then, and just pay him the money? Good question, that’s why it’s an interesting debate.
2. Of the following three defensemen, would you be open to moving Komisarek, Beauchemin, or Schenn for the right offer? For me personally, I wouldn’t consider moving Schenn, but Beauchemin and Komisarek are absolutely in play, and wouldn’t hesitate at moving either one or both. There needs to be some aspect of immediate help coming to the Leafs out of whatever deals get done this weekend, but there is also some benefit to shedding salary for picks, and allowing the Leafs to be bigger players on July 1^st.
3. Is it worth chasing down a 1^st round pick, or should the Leafs try to stockpile picks in the later rounds? Despite what people are saying about this not being a deep draft, I completely disagree. It is not deep in the sense that we will probably only see 3 or 4 guys in the NHL next season, but there are a lot of great kids in the mid rounds who could pan out in 3 or 4 years.
4. What Leafs prospects would you put in play to make a deal? The HF Boards whipping boy Stefanovich is always mentioned, but how badly are you willing to rob the Leafs future to improve in the present? I am not willing to entertain the thought of Kadri being moved, and in fact, I’m not really willing to offer anyone around unless it’s an insanely over the top talented player the Leafs land (also that player should be under the age of 30). Is it fair to say Bozak and Gunnarsson are in play?
5. If the Leafs don’t do anything tonight, is it the worst thing that’s ever happened? I know I want to be entertained, and watch Brian Burke pull off a huge deal tonight. And it would be nice to watch him step up to the podium and select the next player we will idolize and then demand be traded. If it doesn’t happen have you lost faith that Brian Burke will make the right moves for the Leafs or do you trust that he’s going to improve the team at some point this summer? I can honestly say, my confidence in him will go down a little, but I won’t immediately call for his head.

 That’s it until draft time for me. Check out some of my other posts on YakovMironov (which will soon be YakovMironov.Com) or better yet, follow me on Twitter. If Kaberle doesn’t get traded, I promise a very interesting, overly emotional response. Have A Great Draft Day!

With the Leafs having a forward core that’s been described as absolutely brutal, and one of the most pathetic that has ever graced the NHL from a team that wasn’t within its first 2-3 years of existence, there is a lot of hype over what Brian Burke will do with this roster that has promise for the future, but no zing for the now. People are undecided if the big move is going to happen via trade, or via free agency. Personally, I think we’re going to see a little bit of both. Do I have any idea whatsoever the results are going to be? No clue. But do I have any wants?

Absolutely. In fact, I have the biggest want, with my eyes entirely on the big prize. Specifically, I want the man who just might be the best free agent in NHL history, all factors considered (more on that later). Of course, I’m talking about #17 of the New Jersey Devils (you know him better as the only relavent thing the Atlanta Thrashers have had in years) Ilya Kovalchuk.

Now, I know what you’re thinking “Jeff, first off, best UFA ever? You’re crazy. Secondly, he’s going to want too much money, thirdly, he’s going to the KHL, fourth, Burke doesn’t want him, and five, why would he want to come here?”

All fair arguments. But I’m still going to try to squash them.

Best UFA Ever?

Just want to get this out of the way, because even though it has nothing to do with my Leafs argument, its still a statement I made that I’m going to stick with.

Absolutely. The fact is, the whole “star players hitting free agency in their primes” thing is a pretty new concept. Wayne Gretzky was 16 years into his NHL career before he hit the market. Guy Lafleur was 38. Bobby Orr, while not old, was too crippled to really play hockey. And most of the other notable free agents of yore signed to the WHA, not in the NHL.

Really, you have to look at the last few years, and the only UFA’s that hold a candle to him in my eyes are Paul Kariya in 2003, Zdeno Chara in 2006, Peter Forsberg in 2005, and Marian Hossa in 2008. How does he beat them? Forsberg was showing himself to be incredibly injury prone, and was adament on signing with either Colorado or Philadelphia. Kariya was just finally recovering from previous injuries when rocked by Scott Stevens weeks before during the Stanley Cup finals. Chara and Hossa were great picks, but (at least at the time), were not considered of the prestige that Ilya Kovalchuk has right now. When one combines age, skill, and health, you really can’t choose anyone but Kovalchuk as the highest profile free agent the NHL has ever seen.

Now, onto the stuff that actually matters for the sake of this argument.

Burke Doesn’t Want Him

The most frequently mentioned thing that I hear is that Brian Burke doesn’t want him. And you know what, its also the most easily backed up – Burke has commented twice in the last few months regarding Kovalchuk, and both times, they’ve been negative. The issue with taking this as a conclusive “Yeah, not coming there” lies in two ways – the fact that Burke may be dodging around words, and the fact that Burke has a past history of saying things and doing the exact opposite.

On the former – pay close attention what he actually says in the two comments he made about him. In the first, we get this.

“I’m not interested in committing that amount of money, for that term, for a player….I’m not making that phone call…”

Which was in response to him rejecting Atlanta’s 10 years at League Maximum offer. Which nobody in their right mind would sign him too, and I think that Ilya expects to get that, rather he rejected it as a means to get out of Atlanta (more on that later). Burke isn’t saying he has no interest in him with this, what he is saying is that he has no interest in signing Kovalchuk to a contract nothing short of insane.

Yesterday, ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun had a quote from Leafs GM Brian Burke basically squashing any speculation his team would be in the mix for Kovalchuk, saying simply: “We’re not going to be involved in that race.”

This one is a little bit harder to defend, but it can still be defended. The key word that Burke used here was race, which generally gets used when referring to a potential bidding war, in which case, we have another completely logical statement from a GM that could still want him. He won’t pay him a ton of money over a super long term, and he’s not prepared to get into a bidding war. That doesn’t mean he won’t give him an offer. He’d be stupid not to, even if its an extreme low-ball offer just in case it’s been his lifelong dream to wear the blue and white (unlikely, but still, worth a try).

On top of this, Burke isn’t exactly the most honest about his interests sometimes. Remember back when the rumours first started occurring that he would become our next General Manager? Me too, I remember him strictly and bluntly denying that this was going to happen, and that he was happy in Anaheim and that he planned to be there for a long time. True to his word, he’s currently our General Manager. How about the time where he said Tomas Kaberle was going nowhere, that he’s in it for the long haul, they absolutely won’t shop him, and they’ll start looking at an extension when the time comes? Do you need a reminder of what’s happening as we speak?

One can even look further back into his career. This is the man who said he wasn’t going to trade Sergei Fedorov shortly after he became the GM of Anaheim. In Vancouver, he said he wasn’t going to fire Mike Keenan (and did nearly immediately), and that they were not going to give into Pavel Bure’s trade demands, and that they’d out-wait him.

Really, the only time that Brian Burke has EVER been upfront about big news in his organizations was when he threw that press conference last year declaring that the Leafs were going to attempt to trade up for John Tavares. He even said during said press conference that it was a departure from his normal methods of being the silent killer, so to speak. And guess what? It failed miserably. Throw in the fact that he’s had enough tampering accusations thrown at him in the past year, and its no wonder that Burke would want to keep such a high profile move under wraps to the point of denying there’s anything happening, even though he has no reason to deny it.

I mean, I could be wrong here, and he could legitimately want nothing to do with Ilya Kovalchuk. But you can’t rule out the possibility that its all smoke and mirrors.

KHL Concerns are Unfounded

There’s a lot of concern that Kovalchuk will bolt for the Kontinental Hockey League to play for SKA St. Petersburg, the richest team in the league that’s offering him a ton of money (seriously, if they paid him in 50 dollar bills, depending on his signing bonus, it would weigh nearly a ton). There’s a few reasons for this. One, he’s Russian and everybody knows that every single Russian in the NHL is going to sign in the KHL as soon as their contract is over (watch out for Ovechkin…he’s a little over a decade away!!!1). The fact that his agent is being a dickhead smart negotiator and mentioning its a possibility doesn’t help things. And thirdly, THATS A LOT OF MONEY. For those who don’t know, the St. Petersburg offer is 3 years, 14 million PER YEAR. With an unknown signing bonus. And its nearly tax free.

Financially, no team in the NHL could match that if they wanted to due to the league maximum salary expected to be $11.75 million this year, and thats before taxes, escrow, and a bunch of other stuff. They have no chance to give Kovalchuk more money than St. Petersburg. So if its all about the money for Ilya, as everyone seems to think, why hasn’t he left yet?

Because it isn’t. Either that, or he thinks the KHL will collapse financially in those 3 years. Or both. Either way, if he hasn’t signed now, the only way I see him leaving is if nobody offers him a remotely decent contract in the NHL.

To add to this, and to add to the Toronto perspective, one can look at endorsements. You’re not exactly going to be rolling in endorsement dough in Russia, just as you aren’t in most NHL markets. But Toronto’s a whole different ball game. If a player of Kovalchuk’s stature signs here, they will no doubt be at WORST 3rd in the league in endorsement money. Nobody’s touching Crosby, but its possible that Kovalchuk could theoretically leapfrog Alexander Ovechkin in terms of money made from endorsements per year merely on the fact he’s a Toronto Maple Leafs player and Ovy isn’t. Canadian businesses would eat him up in a way he’d be more than happy with. Granted, I have my doubts that he can parlay an NHL contract and endorsement deals into more than the KHL will offer, but it’ll certainly bring it closer to the numbers he’s being offered. Signing in a small market would ruin any hopes of this for him, though, so this isn’t an NHL-wide thing.

More On Money – Born To Get Paid?

Another huge issue when it comes to Kovalchuk is the matter of how much money does he actually want out of the NHL. Crazy KHL offers aside, there is a lot of talk that he’s specifically out there for best offer. So much so, that he rejected a contract offer from Atlanta of 10 years, 113.4 million dollars (League Max). Now, what this seems to have most people thinking, is that he’s a money grubbing dick who cares nothing about the paycheque. Naturally, I think the contrary. He knows for a fact a deal that brings him to the tail end of his career for an exhortation amount of money is not one that you reject if you’re in it for the dollars, because the only people that will offer you 10 years via free agency want to do it to lower your average cap hit. Conversely, when the highest paid player in hockey is Alexander Ovechkin at a 9.5 million dollar cap hit, and Sidney Crosby makes 8.7 million, there is no way that even with UFA overpayment that ANY team goes over either of those.

The real reason he rejected that massive contract? Its simple – its not the money, its the place. He simply no longer wanted to be a member of the Atlanta Thrashers, and having a brutal contract negotiation period, while a weak way to go, is better than being the team captain that demanded a trade out of the city. Making contract negotiations into an awkward mess plays better to his persona, and at least gives the Thrashers an opportunity to not look like their hands were tied towards trading him.

With this considered, everyone’s reacting to the obvious – why hasn’t New Jersey signed him? They did pay a ton for him in January, after all. There are a few things to consider. One, they’re working on that Semin for Brodeur trade (just kidding, and seriously, anyone who believes Eklund on this is a fool). One, their biggest issue right now is defence, and their by-far top defenceman Paul Martin is looking towards testing the market. So on top of trying to convince him otherwise, they have to look at making a move for a replacement (TOMAS KABERLE TO TEH DEVILS!!!111). To make things worse, keep in mind that Kovalchuk would not distinctively be number one Left Winger on the team. Much like the Caps have LW’s #1 and #4 in the NHL, and are rumored to be shopping Alexander Semin (FOR BRODEUR!!!11) due to his contract status at the moment (1 year left until UFA), the Devils currently have the #2 and #3 Left Wings in the world (though nobody knows which goes which, its a close one depending on what you want), and with Zach Parise being the next Captain and Face of the Franchise, I don’t think Ilya “Rental acquired to put the team over the top, but it turns out the team couldn’t get out of round 1″ Kovalchuk is the big issue on ol’ Lou’s mind. Add to the fact that Parise isn’t far off of needing an extension himself, and you know exactly why New Jerseys talks aren’t going well. Its not him, its just that the team has more pressing issues on their mind, and extending a rental to start a “who plays on which line” debate isn’t exactly their most necessary issue at the moment.

He Wouldn’t Want To Be Here

There’s a lot of talk that Toronto might not be the place for him, because he wouldn’t want to be here. Minus the fact he’d be long and away the best player, while still having a medicore but improving supporting cast, there are a ton of reasons why he’d want to be a member of this team.

First off, the obvious. He’s rumored to be rather interested in this team, at least according to James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail. I’ll let the line speak for itself.

What’s interesting about the Kovalchuk talk is that I’ve been told pretty definitively that the Leafs were among the teams he was interested in. While the player (who is under contract to the Devils until July 1) and his camp remain quiet on all this, the general feeling around the league is that Toronto was at least among the teams in the running.

Scondly, is the attention that he’d get. I don’t know about you, but to me, Kovalchuk seems to have a demeanor, at least on ice, that indicates that he wouldn’t be opposed to being the centre of attention. I mean, this is a guy who’s most infamous for celebrating a goal before scoring it in the World Junior Hockey Championship. Calling him a guy that would fit into a big market may be presumptuous, but its entirely possible, and leans towards probable with the way his personality leans. If this is the case, there is no better place to be Mr. Everything than Toronto. Especially when you’re probably the 2nd best goal scorer in the game, on a team that historically hasn’t had many big time goal scorers (I think we can still count 50 goal scorers on one hand, may be wrong though). Toronto craves a megastar. We still talk about the year that Doug Gilmour was a megastar on a frequent basis, and that was 17 years ago and it probably won’t stop any time soon.

Put it to you this way – if he scores 40 a year for the next 5 years, which would be low for him – he’s averaged 46 in his last 5, he’ll be in the discussion as one of the greatest goal scorers in the history of this team. He’ll be up there in the “most talented player to ever wear the blue and white” discussion. More Kovalchuk jerseys will be owned by Leafs fans than the total amount of Thrashers jerseys sold ever, of any player. He’d be an instant legend.

Toronto as a whole is an attractive city to be a player in too – while it doesn’t have the glitz and glamour of a New York City, or other-possiblity-to-sign-him Los Angeles, it’s still one of the biggest and best cities in North America. If he’s into being part of the Russian scene, there’s a big Russian community in Toronto that could catch his favour. Add to the fact that if he remotely meets expectations, that he’d hear “its on the house” often enough to equal the theoretical KHL contract, and the city looks good for him.

Why We Need Him

There’s a good chance that I still haven’t convinced you at this point. Rather than give up, lets look at the only thing left that really would concern you – and thats why exactly would the Leafs really want to sign him? To me, there’s a few incredibly obvious reasons, and for the sake of this argument, lets ignore the thing that completely gets in the way – salary. That’s another argument all together. Lets just look at him as a hockey player.

First off, the Leafs depth on Kovalchuk’s own Left Wing is quite possibly the worst in the history of the National Hockey League. Lets go through their Left Wingers, in order of points last year. Alexei Ponikarovsky? Pittsburgh Penguin. Nikolai Kulemin? Right Winger his entire life until the Phaneuf trade took care of next player on the list, Niklas Hagman, a member of the Calgary Flames. Jason Blake is an Anaheim Duck. Viktor Stalberg is another natural RW converted by having no choice. Caputi may be on the Marlies next year, Sjostrom is quite strictly a checking line forward, and if Jay Rosehill is on the team, he certainly won’t be playing top line minutes. The entire reasonable “depth” of this team on this wing consists of two unnatural players for it, one who still doesn’t have a contract, and the other who shouldn’t be in the top 6. The Leafs are no doubt going to have to sign or trade for a first line Left Winger, and if you have to do that, you might as well go for a man who at worst is the 3rd best at it in the game, but typically considered #2. (Could always try proposing Finger for Ovechkin again and see how fast McPhee hangs up, though).

Secondarily, even if you ignore the wing naturalism and who goes where, the team is desperately in need of scoring anyway. Five of their top 10 scoring forwards this year were traded at some point. Which isn’t exactly good for a team that was 25th in the NHL as-is in Goals For. Phil Kessel can only do so much, and bringing in a guy like Kovalchuk who will get you 40 goals if not 50 per year is the most braindead obvious logical thing that you can do on this team.

Signing him also brings a definitive face of the franchise to the table up front – Phil Kessel, as fantastic as he is, is both not going to be a player at Kovalchuk’s level (while he can be a Star Forward, he wont to a Superstar or Elite status like Kovalchuk has), and will take a very, very long time to shake the negative stigma that the trade to acquire him has put on him (unless Seguin busts, then we’re cool, right? RIGHT?).

Conversely, this also allows the pressure to be taken off of Kessel, both on ice and off. Off ice, he doesn’t have as much pressure to meet expectations, which are getting higher and higher by the hour these days. Already a shy guy, he can fall back out of the spotlight in the city while still being a fantastic player. On ice, you’ve now eliminated the “cover Kessel, because Bozak just passes and Kulemin just grinds” defensive strategy that 29 teams are surely looking at employing next year, if they haven’t already started (you wonder why Kessel’s production trailed off towards the end of the year? While lack of fitness due to having not training camp doesn’t help, the other teams realizing he’s the only one with talent didn’t exactly benefit his cause either). Kovalchuk and Kessel comine for two IMMENSE threats to the other team. Even if broken up onto two lines, thats still one of them not being put against a shutdown line.

And as if we need any more on-ice reasoning to get him, remember that the Toronto Maple Leafs are a team that is moving their biggest powerplay weapon in Tomas Kaberle, and they need to bring some offensive firepower to that point.

As it so happens, Kovalchuk has for years upon years been one of those 2 minute powerplay forwards, who play PP1 up front, and as they tire, move to defence. Alexander Ovechkin is known for it too, but Kovalchuk, among active players, is the originator. You already have a guarantee that Beauchemin – Phaneuf will be the pair on PP1, with Beauchemin going back to being the passer after a year off in this regard, but what about PP2? Carl Gunnarsson will surely be passsing, but then what? Do we really want Luke Schenn or Mike Komisarek on the powerplay? Phil Kessel could theoretically go there, but Phil Kessel is a nightmare if he messes up on the point, not to mention the fact that snapshots aren’t really what you want to fire from downtown, and a mediocre slapshot prevents him from doing much else.

Conclusion

There is no doubt in anybodys mind that Ilya Kovalchuk s a very special player. He’s one of the best in the world, top 3 in his position. We’re a fanbase that always mentions the want for a high profile UFA, and the highest profile of them all is within our grasp, if we want him to be. There’s even speculation that he wants to be here, as incorrect as it can potentially be.

But the question remains, do we want him? Does Burke want him? How much does he want? Are his eyes set on home? And many others. Hopefully, my opinions have swayed you somewhat to say that its not as bad as we make it out to be in terms of negativity to him coming here or not. Do I legitimately think that he’s here on July 1st? Who knows. I’d love to see it, personally, but as much as I’d like to pretend I know these things, I don’t.

And how much will he eventually want here? Personally, I think it’ll be between 8 and 8.5 million a year if Burke is adamant on keeping the length at 5 years maximum. Less if not. Again though, just speculation.

The point is, while we can speculate all we want, we in the end don’t know. Those who declare him to be in the bag are about as bad as the ones who say its impossible. The only thing that seperates them is that optimism is generally the best approach to have in a situation. And god knows this team needs a bit more optimism. So, I say, lets look positive. We have an amazing player here within our grasp, and there’s every possiblity in the world that he just might be here in 2 weeks. Rather than brush it off without a thought, can we just get a little excited for once?

Just a bit of food for thought to wrap this up. I legitimately think the biggest reason that the fans don’t want to see Kovalchuk in a Leafs uniform is not in fact because they don’t want him, but because they don’t want to buy into it and have their hopes squashed. There’s soemthing in their head saying “there’s no way the Leafs can get Ilya Kovalchuk, so lets start convincing ourselves of why”. Instead of doing that, lets look back a year. If I told you a year ago that the Toronto Maple Leafs would have Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel on this team, you’d laugh in my face.

Those turned out alright. Maybe this one can happen too.

PS: Appologies for the length of this monstrosity of a blog. I’ve been wanting to get around to this one for a while, and with all the procrastinating, I wanted to make it count. Hopefully 90% of you didn’t scroll down to here after giving up, or even worse, gave up and never saw this message. At least there wasn’t another chart with a crazy explanation, am I right? By the way, if anyone points out that Halak shouldn’t be in net in that screenshot, I made it on Wednesday, okay?!? Comment away.

]]> http://leafshq.com/2010/06/18/ilya-kovalchuk-isnt-that-impossible/feed/ 17 http://leafshq.com/2010/06/12/in-defence-of-jeff-finger/ http://leafshq.com/2010/06/12/in-defence-of-jeff-finger/#comments Sat, 12 Jun 2010 18:43:03 +0000 Jeff Veillette http://leafshq.com/?p=743

This may or may not be the most hated article that I’ll ever write. I’m aware, so troll on.

Look, there are many extremely toxic contracts in the NHL, that are extremely detrimental to the team because of their ridiculous length, cap hit, and a players poor play. Jeff Finger, isn’t one of them. Sure, he’s by no means worth it to the Toronto Maple Leafs, filled to the brim with very good defencemen. Sure, his contract was a big WTF when he first signed it. But when you really look at things, its not so bad. Look, I know you’re laughing your asses off  right now, but give this article a chance and hear me out.

Origins of FingerMania

The Legend of Jeff Finger started on the greatest of all freak out days – July 1st. For fans, this is the time of year where most of their predictions will be answered, more so than any other day. And when something smacks them in the face with surprise, it really smacks them in the face.

Sure enough, we got that. But it wasn’t so much a smack in the face, but rather having the Hubble Space Telescope forget about the laws of gravity, come crashing towards earth, and land directly on our midsections. With a misfired nuclear missile going for the face. On top of the relatively normal signing of Dallas-then, Calgary-now Left Winger Niklas Hagman, the Leafs signed an enterprising, middle aged yet inexperienced defenceman named Jeff Finger.

And it was for 4 years. And 3.5 million dollars per, to boot.

I can still remember the reactions. HFBoards, for once, put it the best, with the very first post being “Who the fuck is Jeff Finger?”. About what I would’ve thought, if I didn’t upload a youtube video of him recently having one of the worst fights I’ve ever seen with someone that I can’t remember now. My question – “This is a typo, right? He signed for 3.5 total, not a year, right?”. It had really stumbled many – yes, the guy had show potential with Colorado, and was a serviceable defenceman with the Colorado Avalanche, but 3.5 million dollars a year? This couldn’t have been serious. As confirmation came out that it was the real deal, many speculated the senile Cliff Fletcher accidentally put per year instead of total in his contract, and its past correcting. Some said the senile Cliff Fletcher confused him with Kurt Sauer. And many more theories bounced around, largely around Cliff Fletcher being senile.

The point is, from the second the Leafs signed him, a fanbase was incredibly confused, and for good reason, disliking of the signing. It seemed to be completely out of nowhere, and for an absolutely questionable amount. Really, he’d have to be nothing short of amazing to win the respect of fans.

His first year with the Leafs was decent, though obviously not up to the fans expectations, getting 6 goals and 17 helpers for a total of 23 points. He was also way up in the league’s stats for hits and blocked shots, something that is rarely noticed out of him. Many believe the fact that Pavel Kubina was kept due to Ron Wilson’s absolute mancrush on him (he thought if the Sharks got him at the 08 deadline, they would’ve won the cup), and the rapid emergence of Luke Schenn as an NHL ready player lead to Finger not really getting a fair shake at being a #2 or #3 defenceman on the Leafs to start with.

The next year would make matters even worse. Yes, Kubina was traded in a cap dump trade, bringing back fucknut Garnet Exelby, but this cap dump was to sign two more defencemen in Francois Beauchemin and Mike Komisarek, now leaving Finger stuck at a minimum of #5 on the depth chart. He was poised to start the year as a 5 or 6 defenceman, when his lack of ability to catch a break continued in the emergence of prospect Carl Gunnarsson. As if new players didn’t already pose a threat to him, he had to deal with a rookie coming out of nowhere for the second year in a row. This lead to him and Exelby splitting the years duties 50/50, with each playing approximately 40 games. With his luck, the injuries of Mike Komisarek were offset by Ian White deciding he’d go from 6th defenceman to superman for a few months. And when White left, Captain-on-Monday Dion Phaneuf came in, meaning Finger was nowhere near the top end. Back to those 39 games. Finger still put up a decent 10 points in that time, on pace for a 20 point year on the 3rd pair with next to no powerplay time, which is actually rather respectable. But its still not enough, as he’s being paid to the tune of a little less than $100,000 per game.

This leaves the current situation – the Leafs are looking to make a massive splash on the market to acquire top line talent. Yes, the shopping of Tomas Kaberle is part of this, leaving one more spot for Finger to climb (making him behind Phaneuf, Beauchemin, Komisarek, Schenn, and Gunnarsson in the system as a max 6th defenceman). With the Leafs looking to save money up to take a run at someone elite like Ilya Kovalchuk or Patrick Marleau, its entirely likely that Finger can get the fate that few like – being sent to play in Ricoh Coliseum to play with the Toronto Marlies, unless someone claims him on waivers on the way. And at 3.5 million – it wont happen, as the stigma that is Jeff Finger’s contract is seen throughout the league.

There’s only one issue though – Mr. Finger is a victim of lineup circumstance, as we can see. He hasn’t really been given the minutes to produce statistically, particularly this year. Could it be possible that the thing that’s keeping him overpaid is a simple numbers game that’s giving him limited minutes? Or would he still be bad if given 3.5M minutes? Here’s what I figured out.

Comparison – Bring in the Charts

Seen in my Kulemin comparison article, I’ve gone to the comparison chart method. Here I compare his goals, assists, points, penalty minutes, shots, hits, blocked shots, giveaways, and takeaways, to 30 other NHL defencemen who all make anywhere between 2.5-4 million, with the exceptions of Kim Johnsson (4.8), Mike Komisarek (4.5), and Wade Redden (6.25). As you can see, the 40 games that he played don’t really help his case. Anyway, when a comparison is better than finger, he gets a green block. Worse a red, and equal a yellow. These are further put into a “Better Than Finger” stat, that scores those blocks. 1 point for a green, 0 for a yellow, and -1 for a red. With the 39 games played, he loses out most of the time, except to approximately equal or less game played players Brendan Witt, Mathieu Schneider, and Mike Komisarek. Cory Sarich, on the other hand, just plain sucks, desperately losing despite about 1.5x the games played. AND he makes more money, at 3.6 million.

As you can see, at 40 games played, Finger is by no means worth is bacon against these players, who average out to be 18 point defencemen with decent blocked shot and hit counts, at 3.58M a year for 67 games played. Player X, the averaged stat of everyone, was a +6 in the Better Than Finger (the average was +3.83) But wait, is there any way to even out these minutes, to really see what they’re like? Lets see what happens when Finger, and everyone, plays 20 minutes a game, at 82 games a year. To even make things easier won the competition, I switched out the cap hit for a giveaway vs. takeaway ratio, of which Finger’s is rather bad. Lets see the results.

…your mind just blew up.

When given equal minutes, Finger seems to do rather well against many of these players, going on a 30 point pace, with out of this world blocked shot and hit counts. His giveaway/takeover ratio is weak, but other than that, that stat sheet looks good for 3.5 million. It looks even better when he wins the Better Than Finger event 20 out of 30 times, including having a perfect -10 against Komisarek and Sarich. Granted, this chart doesn’t neccessarily mean that he’s better than everyone they beat – people have down years, injuries to recover from, and other things like that. It also doesn’t account for stupid plays that might not be giveaways, which are often argued to happen to Finger (I still like to think they’re just noticed more cause they’re looking for them so they can criticize more. People who have hate on’s for players can do this rather well, as I’ve heard it for every Toronto defenceman at some point this year. Most of the hate being on Finger, most of it is noticed when its him.) But 2/3 of them is a lot more that I even though when I first created the article. At the worst, adjusting for other players having issues, it can be argued that he’s at least average compared to these guys if given similar situational time. Only one problem.

The Sad Truth – Why We Probably Can’t Give Him A Serious Chance

Its never going to happen, and for good reason. The fact is, the Leafs currently have one of the most stacked defensive cores right now. Names like Dion Phaneuf, Francois Beauchemin, and Mike Komisarek are rather hard to surpass, especially the first two, and possibly all three if Komisarek bounces back. Carl Gunnarsson and Luke Schenn continue to be on the rise, with word that the likes of Keith Aulie, Juraj Mikus, Jesse Blacker, and more prospects not being that far behind due to solid development. Finger simply doesn’t work as a 3rd pair defenceman, especially at that price. He could work somewhere else, for all we know, but the interest just isn’t there.

Conclusion

A combination of everyone jumping the gun and criticizing Finger’s arrival from the very second the contract was reported, and development in the Leafs defensive system has prevented Jeff Finger being any more than a bad reputation from his start here. It can definitely be argued that on another team, with more time, he could be a better defenceman statistically, at least, than anyone expected. But it won’t work here. Finger himself said way back when that he’d rather be on the Marlies playing hockey than on the Leafs sitting on the bench, because he just wants to play hockey.

And if an Ilya Kovalchuk comes in and says “I’d sign, but won’t you be 2.5 million over the cap?” you know damn well what Brian Burke’s next move is. And it’ll be a sensible move, as there isn’t much reason to keep Jeff up with everything considered.

For his sake, I hope that we’re all wrong, and that a trading partner can be found. But I have my doubts on that, and I hope he hopes playing in Ricoh. I’ll be watching him, and supporting him as he rips of the American Hockey League with high minutes. To the fans, it’ll be the best thing he’s ever done for this franchise, to him, he’ll be playing hockey 80 games a year again, and with him still making the same money there, he’ll probably be content knowing the circumstances.

Either that, or we trade off half our defence and let Finger be the consistent defenceman the stats prove he can be.

Yeah, the first one is probably the better option for more people. Its a sad truth for Finger, but that’s how it works in this salary cap era. All I’m saying is though, is that we’re not necessary talking about a horribly overpaid player here. He can be a player worth his money if he can get those minutes. He’s just horribly placed.

Who the fuck is Jeff Finger? He’s a #3 defenceman stuck on a team that makes him a victim of numbers. A player who confused many with his signing, for good reason, yet never had a chance to answer the questions asked of him. And I wish him all the best in the American Hockey League next year.

So, its June and the year is 2008 or later. You guys all know the drill. Tomas Kaberle probably used his no trade clause at the trade deadline, and speculation runs wild that the Leafs will trade him at the draft, particularly this year where the pick cupboard is particularly low. The particular opinion is that the Leafs want a top six forward and secondary toughness in return, in an effort to shore up a particularly ailing forward system on a team filled to the brim with defencemen and goaltending for the first time since the birth of Chris Chelios (273 BC).

At this point, everyone agrees that no matter how much we respect Kaberle for being one of the top all time defencemen on this team in terms of contribution, for being far and away the longest serving Leaf left (he’s the only player that was on the roster before October 2008. Yes, you read that right), for being classy as can be during his tenure, for consistantly being an awesome defenceman, and about a thousand things great about him, its his time to go. Dion Phaneuf has come in and declared the team his, essentially making it clear that anyone who disagrees can jump off a bridge. Francois Beauchemin had a solid year. Komisarek, when healthy, was very good after the first few weeks. Luke Schenn had a weak start to the year, but has been evolving at hyperspeed since Dion came in. Carl Gunnarsson has shown amazing strides in his play. And the Leafs have a million and one defensive prospects willing to force Jeff Finger into the AHL. Kaberle is just simply the odd one out.

There is a question that concerns many though – and that’s who would be wanting a player like Kaberle? As great as he is, there are definite concerns in such a trade.

1. How does the other team look for salary?
1a. Do they have a lot of players to sign already? High cap space may not be as good as appears.
2. Do they have enough forward depth to be able to trade someone solid away?
3. Would Kaberle be a first pairing defenceman on the team?
4. Would Kaberle be the #1 puck moving defenceman on the team?
5. Is the team in a position where they’d want to be acquiring a Kaberle to win?
6. How badly would they require Kaberle to sign an extension? And
7. Would Kaberle want to sign an extension there?

I took these 8 categories, and put them in to a chart, to see if it gives a reasonably accurate portrayal of who I thought could aquire Tomas. This is what came out of it.

It uses the 8 factors that I mentioned above, in order. With the exception of cap hit, the good, neutral, and bad weren’t evenly spread amongst the teams. What do the asterisks mean? Anaheims factor in the indecision of Scott Neidermayer, who’s future is in the cards at the moment. If he stays, than the answer is no. If not, than it ‘s yes. Washington, its a reminder for me to point out that Mike Green isn’t a puck mover, hence Kaberle’s spot at #1 there. Straight forward enough, I’d say, minus one question.

How did I figure out the wants?

I went yes for teams in the Northeast (made a mistake on Ottawa – that yes should be green), teams in the East close to the top (Washington, Pittsburgh), and teams in the east with other factors (Longtime friend and teammate Bryan McCabe being in Florida, and brother Frantisek probably putting in a good word for the Carolina Hurricanes). All other Eastern teams or Canadian teams were given a maybe. Los Angeles was given a maybe due to its rising up the charts (like Pittsburgh and Washington), as was Chicago. Detroit is in for its reputation as a good team for veteran European players to play for, and Phoenix is a maybe due to the relocation rumors possibly putting it on the way Winnipeg on June 30th, 2011, classifying it as a Canadian team.

Now, if we were going to use this as a straight up indicator of who’s in and who’s out, you’d get these as your favourites.

1. Washington / 2. Buffalo / 3. New Jersey / 4. Boston / 5. Pittsburgh

And the Bottom 5..

1. Calgary / 2. Minnesota / 3. Anaheim / 4. Detroit / 5. Nashville

Now, there are quite a few teams that surprised me once I made these charts that were so low. I honestly thought that Vancouver would be in the top 5. Chicago, Anaheim, and Detroit at least somewhat higher. Dallas similar. Pittsburgh I always saw as a possibility, but not 5th.

Nonetheless, I’m going to use that 5 as 5 of my teams where I think Kabby will go, merely cause it fits the system. And I”ll add 5 more: Chicago, Vancouver, Ottawa, Florida, and Dallas.

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Washington Capitals
Cap Space: 13.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: Tomas Fleischmann, Eric Fehr, Jose Theodore, Joe Corvo,
Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn
Notable Defencemen: Mike Green, Joe Corvo, Tom Poti
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Montreal Canadiens
Next Year’s Direction: Another full scale attempt to win the Stanley Cup
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Alexander Semin, Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann
Secondary Toughness: Boyd Gordon
Best Feature To Kaberle: The Caps are close to a cup, and would arguably be the best all around defenceman on the team, and undoubtedly the best puck mover.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Such a trade keeps him out of the Division, and poses the best player potentially available in Alexander Semin

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Buffalo Sabres
Cap Space: 11.2 Million
Notable People To Resign: Toni Lydman, Henrik Tallinder, Raffi Torres, Patrick Kaleta
Notable Defencemen: Tyler Myers, Craig Rivet
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Boston Bruins
Next Year’s Direction: An attempt at improvement – not near going all out just yet
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Tomas Vanek, Tim Connolly, Drew Stafford
Secondary Toughness: Paul Gaustad
Best Feature To Kaberle: Close distance to Toronto, same division. Can be a part of a paring with Tyler Myers for years to come.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Can take Vanek’s 7.1M if Sabres are money-concious

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the New Jersey Devils
Cap Space: 15.9 Million
Notable People To Resign: Paul Martin, David Clarkson, Martin Skoula (I had to..), Ilya Kovalchuk, Rob Neidermayer
Notable Defencemen: Paul Martin, Colin White
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Philadelphia Flyers
Next Year’s Direction: A decent cup run. “If we don’t win, no big deal” level.
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Ilya Kovalchuk’s Rights, Cap Dumps of Dainius Zubrus and Brian Rolston (yikes…may have to go prospects)
Secondary Toughness: David Clarkson
Best Feature To Kaberle: Gets to be the clear cut #1 defenceman on a system that cherishes D.
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Kovalchuk is being targeted by the Leafs on July 1st, the Leafs could work his rights into a trade.

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Boston Bruins
Cap Space: 8.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: Blake Wheeler, Dennis Seidenberg, Miroslav Satan, Mark Recchi
Notable Defencemen: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Epic Fail Choke to Philadelphia Flyers
Next Year’s Direction: Not blowing a 3-0 lead in a series
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler, Pick-a-Center
Secondary Toughness: Boston’s toughness is largely primary or just signed
Best Feature To Kaberle: Near Toronto, in division, Chara’s playmaker
Best Feature To The Leafs: If draft picks are the focus, chance to get this years 1st back

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Pittsburgh Penguins
Cap Space: 10.9 Million
Notable People To Resign: Sergei Gonchar, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Cooke, Mark Eaton
Notable Defencemen: Sergei Gonchar, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Loss to Montreal Canadiens
Next Year’s Direction: Another strong push at a 3rd finals appearance in 4 years
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Chris Kunitz, Jordan Staal
Secondary Toughness: Eric Godard
Best Feature To Kaberle: If Gonchar leaves, can be #1 D on major competitor
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Staal is indeed on the market, his value is possibly lower than it should be due to 3rd line minutes

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Chicago Blackhawks
Cap Space: -0.8 Million
Notable People To Resign: John Madden, Adam Burish, Jack Skille, Ben Eager, Andrew Ladd, Antti Niemi, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and others
Notable Defencemen: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Brian Campbell
Last Year’s Result: In progress, currently up 2-1 in Stanley Cup Finals
Next Year’s Direction: Be back in the finals, win a(nother) Stanley Cup
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Andrew Ladd
Secondary Toughness: Ben Eager
Best Feature To Kaberle: By far his best chance to win the cup, then sign elsewhere for financial stability.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Have enough cap space to take overpayment to fix Chi-town’s mess

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Vancouver Canucks
Cap Space: 9.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Mason Raymond, Willie Mitchell, Pavol Demitra, Kyle Wellwood
Notable Defencemen: Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo, Christian Ehroff, Alex Edler, Willie Mitchell
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Loss to Chicago Blackhawks
Next Year’s Direction: Push Towards Minimum WCF Appearance
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Mason Raymond, Michael Grabner
Secondary Toughness: Darcy Hordichuk, Rick Rypien
Best Feature To Kaberle: Still in Canada, likely heard good things from Sundin, Competitor
Best Feature To The Leafs: Rumors of Prospect Cody Hodgson being unhappy can play to Leafs advantage

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Ottawa Senators
Cap Space: 7.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Anton Volchenkov, Andy Sutton, Nick Foligno, Chris Campoli
Notable Defencemen: Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Pittsburgh Penguins
Next Year’s Direction: Another Playoff appearance, no big push just yet
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Jason Spezza, Nick Foligno
Secondary Toughness: Jarkko Ruutu, Matt Carkner
Best Feature To Kaberle: The closest Canadian city, would be best offensive D in quite some time
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Spezza truely wants out, could be at lower cost than expected

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Florida Panthers
Cap Space: 9.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: No core players
Notable Defencemen: Keith Ballard, Bryan McCabe, Dimitri Kulikov
Last Year’s Result: 14th in Eastern Conference
Next Year’s Direction: Rebuild – Shakeup Year
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Nathan Horton, Rostislav Olesz, Cory Stillman
Secondary Toughness: Nick Tarnasky
Best Feature To Kaberle: No doubt, going back to being on a pairing with Bryan McCabe
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Panthers are wanting to trade Horton, they have 3 weeks till NTC kicks in

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Dallas Stars
Cap Space: 14.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Marty Turco, Mike Modano (If Return), Jere Lehtinen, Fabian Brunnstrom, Matt Niskanen, James Neal
Notable Defencemen: Matt Niskanen, Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley
Last Year’s Result: 12th in Western Conference
Next Year’s Direction: Push towards playoff spot
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro
Secondary Toughness: Mostly Primary Toughness and Recent Contracts
Best Feature To Kaberle: Obscurity – Low pressure market, dressing room full of Leaders as is, no major expectations next year
Best Feature To The Leafs: Tom Hicks may be desperate to cut salary if he as to keep team another year

First question you may have – why does it matter what Kaberle thinks? He doesn’t have a no trade clause, so we can ship him anywhere without him saying a word anyway, you may say. In theory, yes. In practice, yes. But looking at the big picture, this isn’t the best of ideas.  A team that is confident in Kaberle wanting to be part of the teams longterm plans (whether they can afford to keep him long term or not), is much more willing to aquire him, and willing to give up more. You always want players who want to be members of your team. Its the same logic, though brought to a new extreme, as the Dany Heatley situation. The Senators had no obligation to trade him, but they knew an unhappy Heatley was an underwhelming Heatley, and worked at it until a deal worked. I’m not saying if the Leafs trade Kaberle to say, Nashville that he’s going to be toxic in the dressing room, and a terrible player, but there could be a slight difference in his confidence and willingness, even if subconscious to him.

This said, there are other teams that are being speculated to be interested in him, most notably Columbus and Anaheim. Why didn’t I include them in my list? Because the rumors aren’t really insider opinions of factors that are going on right now.  They’re similar to this blog – just opinions of what could work for both sides. And you know what, I disagree with them.

The Columbus one is the biggest example. They don’t have a top 6 forward to give the team that isn’t either inexperienced and merely potentially top 6 (Brassard, Voracek), inexperienced, potentially top 6, and potentially a total headcase (Filatov), overpaid and a vet (Huselius), or way over the trade value of Kaberle, not to mention team value (Nash). And the 4th overall pick talk is equally absurd. They say the pressure is to get a player that can step in sooner than later on D – but both Cam Fowler and Erik Gudbranson are thought to be NHL ready next year. Maybe not as good as Kaberle just yet, but certainly more valuable in the long run than potentially losing Tomas after a year.

Anaheim is a different yet still ridiculous concept. The thought would be the Leafs and Ducks would centre a deal around Bobby Ryan for Kaberle. In theory, Leafs fans are having a party right now. In practice, this isn’t the move the Ducks will make “But they have depth!” some will say. “If they can’t afford him, he’s expendable. Who else would they trade?”.  The answer lies in one Joffrey Lupul, acquired in the Chris Pronger trade.  His cap hit is weak, but not brutal, at 4.25 million. No doubt they could find a suitor for him for a pick or something like that that could clear the space for Ryan without them giving him up just yet. The team really doesn’t benefit from Kaberle’s presence just yet, particularly if Neidermayer stays.

Now, I have to be getting at something with all this talk, don’t I? Some realistic speculation on where I think he’s going to go?

While any of those 10 teams wouldn’t shock me, I think the race will end up in between New Jersey, Washington, and Chicago. New Jersey needs a new #1 D with the departure of Paul Martin looking exceedingly more likely by the day, and if Kovalchuk is in Burke’s sights, you know damn well the Leafs will want every negotiation advantage they can get, and having his rights would be a good one. Washington clearly needs another defenceman who isn’t 100% one dimensional, particuarly on that powerplay (Ovechkin and Green on the point is seriously the scariest thing to see in terms of defensive coverage of our generation). And Chicago? They could use an even more stacked D, and even moreso, they could use cap space. All 3 teams have something about them that would appeal to Kaberle.

Whether or not Lou Lamoriello, George McPhee, or Stan Bowman are thinking the same way is not something I can answer.  But hopefully, the massive run on rant that is this article gives you some perspective on what teams look like in this race.

It’s also no secret how they got there.  Hitting at open ice.  Shot-blocking.  Outstanding goaltending.  Despite a lack of skilled offense, this total blue collar effort has brought the Habs past arguably the two best teams in the league like many Cinderella’s before them.

Which has me wondering: if the Leafs do sneak into the playoffs by breaking in on the last couple available seeds in the Eastern Conference next year like everybody expects, could they do the same?

Looking back on earlier years, I found a few things out about how the Leafs of today, who weren’t Leafs yesterday, compare to the Habs of…today.

In other words, I looked back at 2007-2008 when a truly healthy Mike Komisarek was second in the National Hockey League in hits with 266.  What’s even better is that Mike Komisarek lead the entire league in blocked shots with 227.  Despite playing only 12 games he finished the post-season with 39 hits and a fourth-best 41 blocked shots.

Looking back at the year before, I found that Francois Beauchemin was only about a hit-per-game and blocked-shot per game player.  But as I looked at all of his NHL seasons, I found out that Francois had only topped 75 blocked shots once in a season: in 2009-2010 with the Toronto Maple Leafs, when he finished the year with a spectacular 155 blocked shots.

Then there’s our future Captain Dion Phaneuf, who typically puts up about 200 hits a season as well near 100 blocked shots.  Take his Norris Trophy-nominee year, when he had 194 hits and 88 blocked shots in the regular season.  He also had 36 hits and 9 blocked shots in just 7 games played.  Oh, and let’s not forget the offense he provides.

And of course, Luke Schenn.  He was the only Leaf this year to put up both 100+ hits and 100+ blocked shots.  In his rookie season when he wasn’t hampered by a stunning sophomore slump, he was 17th in the league in hits with 206.  He also finished with 116 blocked shots.

As for the rest, despite his mental mistakes and defensive flaws, Jeff Finger is a hitting and shot-blocking machine, another player who when actually getting regular playing time can surpass 100 hits and 100 blocked shots in a season.  Carl Gunnarsson is a shot-blocking machine, having finished with 77 in just 43 games played.  He also averages roughly a hit per game, and every forward expected to be back next season on the Leafs has averaged at least a hit per game other than Phil Kessel and Mikhail Grabovski.  That’s just fine with me, because I already have Phil Kessel slotted in as the sniper who will score 12 goals in 14 games, like a certain Mike Cammalerri on the Habs.

Also, let’s not forget Jonas Gustavsson.  If anybody is going to put on a performance like Jaroslav Halak is now, it’s the Monster.  I only have two small examples to look at when considering how Jonas does under pressure, and they are two good ones at that: in the Swedish Elite League playoffs in 2009, Gustavsson sported a 1.03 GAA and .961 save percentage en route to a championship.  And in the spring of 2009-2010 when Gustavsson was looking for a new contract, he won seven straight games that saw him allow just 17 goals.

So in conclusion, the Leafs are set up front, on the back-end and in the crease when it comes to open ice hits, blocking shots and outstanding goaltending.  They probably won’t have the most skilled of offenses, but it’s the total blue collar effort that got the Habs to the Eastern Conference Finals, and it’s the total blue collar effort that the Maple Leafs are willing to endorse to make the same Cinderella story next season.

You can follow me on Twitter at www.twitter.com/raskofalltrades

I run a separate blog at www.stupidbuthealthy.blogspot.com

The 5 W’s

Who is he?

Korbinian Holzer is the most recent addition to the Leafs list of contracts, according to an interview with assistant GM Dave Poulin. Now, he’s not the newest member of the Leafs organization – but definitely the most recent to sign a pro contract with the team. Korbinan is a 22 year old defenceman from Munich, Germany. A right handed shot, Holzer is another Burke-sized prospect in our system, towering at 6’3 and weighing in at a lanky 190 lbs. He has not played North American Hockey yet, his career involving 3 years in the DEL (Deutsche Eishockey Liga, or the German Ice Hockey League).

What did his stats look like this year?

Holzer played 52 games this year for the DEG Metro Stars, amassing 22 points (6 goals 16 assists) in this time, along with 96 penalty minutes. This was good for second on the Metro Stars for points by a defenceman, behind NHL ex-pat Patrick Traverse. The 110 PIM was good for 4th on the team, 1st for the D.

When/how did the Leafs acquire him?

As we all know, the John Ferguson Jr. era had one reedeeming quality, and that was the quality of draft picks. Holzer is no exception to this rule, being yet another JFJ-era Leafs draft pick thriving in the system. He was picked in the 4th round, 111th overall in the 2006 NHL entry draft.

Where has he played?

Holzer has spent all 3 years of his professional career with the DEG Metro Stars, improving his play year by year. His hard work lead to him being put on the German Olympic Team this year, as the icing on the cake to his current team portfolio.

Why was he acquired?

Its hard to judge, seeing as he was a 4th round pick and not as much thought gets put into the mid-late rounds, but size had to play a factor in the desicision.

What’s been Said…

HockeysFuture.com

While Holzer has appealing size at 6’2, he needs to bulk up his wiry frame. That being said, he’ll have plenty of time to pack on the pounds as he looks to stay overseas for a couple more years at least, refining his skills.

Matias Strozyk, EliteProspects.com

A large and right-handed defenseman with a defensive mindset. Plays physically and checks hard. Could improve his physical game but has the potential to be more than “good”.

In The System

Whats his role expected to be next year?

Considering the new contract that Holzer just signed, it’s very likely we’ll be seeing him in a Toronto Marlies uniform next year as he continues his march through the ranks of pro hockey.

Has he exceeded or failed to reach the expectations had of him since being acquired?

Exceeded. Not many players in his draft range have accomplished anything yet, with Columbus’ Derek Dorsett and Toronto’s own Viktor Stalberg the only ones to play 40 NHL games. Holzer may not have that, but he has Olympic experience, which is hard to come by when going through the 2006 drafts players after the first round.

Where is he ranked in the Leafs depth chart for his position?

Hockeysfuture.com has him 5th (6th, but they have Gunnarsson as a prospect still, so we’ll assume fifth), behind Jesse Blacker, Keith Aulie, Phil Oreskovic, and Juraj Mikus. His ranking is a 6.5C, meaning he could be a 4/5th defenceman.

The Big Question

What does the future hold for him? Does he have a shot at being a contributing full time Leaf?

He’ll have to really make an impact in the next year or two with the Marlies to have any significant chance at a shot with the Leafs organization long term. With the depth the team has on defence, along with him not being in the top 3 defensive prospects, he’s got some work to do, no doubt. Depth will be the biggest hurdle to his success here, and might mean a career with a different NHL team.

Anything Else?

The German Gunnarsson?

A lot of talk is being made of the potential of Holzer taking a similar role to Carl Gunnarsson, quietly working his way through the Leafs system until finally making it and making a decent impact right away as a solid 2nd pair defenceman. Holzer still has a bit to prove before I buy into this though, just like Gunnarsson had to prove his ability to everyone else.

See Them In Action

One Problem…

If you thought OHL and AHL footage was hard to get, the DEL is like pulling teeth. I can’t find anything definitively Holzer to put up here that would be particularly interesting. So no video, this time. Sorry!

As many of you know, I’m a stat nerd. I need to know every single little detail about the world of hockey, to a scary degree. And for this reason, I had some fun with ESPN’s player profiles today.

The cool thing about ESPN’s player profiles is that they let you check out splits. Splits divide stats into ridiculous detail, like months of the year, days of the week, time of the game, days of rest before game day, crazy stuff like that. I didn’t go for all the crazy stuff, but I did want to know the following things.

1. Is there a player breakdown to the Leafs significantly better play at home than on the road this year? The team was over .500 at home, while 9 games under when traveling around the NHL.

2. Does being on Hockey Night In Canada make a huge difference? Everyone seems to think the Leafs play better when on National television. Is there any truth to this?

3. Its been stated that the East is a much weaker conference than the West. How do the Leafs players do against the two conferences?

4. Do the Leafs have players that step it up against divisional rivals? How do our players stack up against the teams that matter most?

5. Are there any players on our team that actually play better when the Leafs lose?

My findings on each question are below. Now, keep the following things in note.

- For skaters, I used points per game as my main statistic. Games played was typically the tiebreaker. however, I did use some lenience if goals were vastly better. (.94 PPG with .6GPG > 1.0 PPG with .3 PPG, for example).

- For goalies, I used a mix of GAA and SV%.

So here are my findings.

1. Is there a player breakdown to the Leafs significantly better play at home than on the road this year? The team was over .500 at home, while 9 games under when traveling around the NHL.

Home: 13 (Bozak, Primeau, Wallin, Caputi, Stalberg, Kessel, Sjostrom, Beauchemin, Exelby, Komisarek, Schenn, Giguere, Gustavsson)

Away: 10 (Grabovski, Hanson, Mitchell, Lundmark, Kulemin, Orr, Finger, Gunnarsson, Kaberle, Phaneuf).

Surprisingly, this was much closer than I thought. At first, when seeing the likes of Bozak, Beauchemin, and Kessel on the Home side, I thought it was an issue of better players stepping up. However, you see Kulemin, Kaberle, and Phaneuf on the away side, and see that as a solution that doesn’t exist.

Then it occurred to me – the Goaltending. Both Gustavsson and Giguere were much better players at home than on the road this year. One issue though – the two, while combining for the bulk of the year, didn’t combine for all of it. What about Vesa Toskala?

As it turns out, I went to look up his stats for this year, and sure enough, 6 of his 7 wins as a Leaf this year came in the Air Canada Centre. His stats were much better at home as well.

Ladies and Gents, this is why fans in most arenas cheer their goalies on for every save, and stop at nothing to boo the visiting tender. There might actually be something behind it.

2. Does being on Hockey Night In Canada make a huge difference? Everyone seems to think the Leafs play better when on National television. Is there any truth to this?

Sunday: 1 (Wallin)

Monday: 3 (Exelby, Kaberle, Primeau)

Tuesday: 1 (Sjostrom)

Wednesday: 2 (Mitchell, Gunnarsson)

Thursday: 7 (Grabovski, Caputi, Kulemin, Stalberg, Komisarek, Schenn, Giguere)

Friday: 3 (Lundmark, Orr, Finger)

Saturday: 6 (Gustavsson, Phaneuf, Beauchemin, Kessel, Hanson, Bozak)

By raw numbers, it looks like the Hockey Night In Canada thing has no merit. I mean, Thursday has one more player, right?

That’s when you look at quality. Saturday has the  best defenceman, highest minute defenceman, top forward, top forward’s centre, and starting goalie. Thursday has a few decent players, but doesn’t reach Saturday in star power.

But just for the hell of it, I went to check if there was a network thing for Thursday…

And sure enough, Thursday is the #1 day for LeafsTV broadcasts, and the other games played on Thursdays were all TSN minus the season opener on CBC.

You guys know what this means, right?

No more Sportsnet. Please. For the good of the team.

3. Its been stated that the East is a much weaker conference than the West. How do the Leafs players do against the two conferences?

East: 15 (Grabovski, Hanson, Mitchell, Primeau, Wallin, Caputi, Kulemin, Stalberg, Orr, Sjostrom, Exelby, Komisarek, Schenn, Giguere, Gustavsson)

West: 8 (Bozak, Lundmark, Kessel, Beauchemin, Finger, Gunnarsson, Kaberle, Phaneuf)

Lundmark and Phaneufs stats are no doubt boosted by the fact they played for the Flames this year, especially Phaneuf, who went on a cold streak offensively when he showed up here. So you can even make the argument they be removed and this goes 15-6, making it even more lopsided than it already is.

Anyway, this kind of removes doubt on the argument. The Leafs are simply better against the East. Considering the Leafs were last in the conference, that says a lot.

4. Do the Leafs have players that step it up against divisional rivals? How do our players stack up against the teams that matter most?

Atlantic: 2 (Primeau, Wallin)

Central: 5 (Kessel, Orr, Finger, Phaneuf, Gustavsson)

Northeast: 7 (Stalberg, Sjostrom, Exelby, Gunnarsson, Komisarek, Schenn, Giguere)

Northwest: 3 (Beauchemin, Bozak, Lundmark)

Pacific: 3 (Mitchell, Kulemin, Kaberle)

Southeast: 3 (Grabovski, Hanson, Caputi)

Amazingly, it appears we do have a lot of players that step it up against our own division. Unfortunately, exactly zero of these guys are high offensive contributors that win us games. Lots of good defence here, but this article has an offensive bias, so meh. Giguere being there is pretty good though.

Mindbogglingly, there’s a lot of people under the central division too, the second highest at 5. Maybe they’re all purists at heart, and are awaiting our return to the Norris Division of old?

Lastly, only 3 for the Southeast kind of shocked me – for a division that’s supposed to be the worst in hockey, its a pretty neutral one in this situation.

5. Are there any players on our team that actually play better when the Leafs lose?

I thought such an occurrence would be more or less impossible. I mean, particularly with offensive stats, you usually will produce more in a win. But sure enough…

Losses: 3 (Wallin, Komisarek, Orr)

Wins: 20 (Bozak, Grabovski, Hanson, Lundmark, Mitchell, Primeau, Caputi, Kulemin, Stalberg, Kessel, Sjostrom, Beauchemin, Exelby, Finger, Gunnarsson, Kaberle, Phaneuf, Schenn, Giguere, Gustavsson)

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. NOT JUST ONE STATISTICAL REJECT, BUT THREE? THIS IS SOME KIND OF J-

Oh, these guys combined for as many points as Bozak had assists in 37 games? Fucking lack of sample size. Then again, Rickard Wallin would probably be there anyway, margin of error be damned.

Some other stats I noticed.

- Phil Kessel REALLY loves playing at home, getting nearly a point per game. This goes for Saturdays as well, along with the Western Conference (14 goals in 14 games? Legend.) Bozak has similar stats in terms of points in these regards.

- Jeff Finger is a 137 point player if he plays against the Central Division 82 games a year. Okay, extrapolating 5 points in 3 games to an 82 game year is a bit much, but still, just throwing this out there – Finger could be yours, Chicago, Detroit, or anyone in the division, for the low price of any draft pick/minor leaguer/thing that doesn’t cost the Leafs much cap space!

- Rickard Wallin is brutal. Like, really brutal. In every regard.

- Colton Orr fights more when he plays against the West too. Trying to get his name spread across the land, I suspect.

- Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Luke Schenn, and Viktor Stalberg must’ve been the kids who followed every single trend as if it were a science during their young years. They’re all part of the majority side in every regard I listed.

- Rickard Wallin is probably the most unique person, in that he only stays with the pack twice out of the five categories, and in both cases, his stats were dangerously close to being the other way. He’s a special man. And not in the good way.