Tonight will be a night devoted to attempting to defeat the Carolina Hurricanes, who as of late, haven’t really been a challenge to the rest of the NHL. Despite playing more games than any team in the league so far, the Hurricanes are a horrid 28th in the league. Which really, isn’t a position we as Leafs fans can make fun of, seeing how bad the team was just two years ago. But it’s one the team must take advantage of.

Carolina is 9-18-4 on the year, compared to Toronto’s 15-11-3. Offensively, they could be worse, at 17th in the NHL with 79 goals. To put into perspective how that’s still not something to quite pick at – the first overall Minnesota Wild have the same amount of goals with an extra game played. Toronto sits 6th in the league with 91. Where Carolina has its issue is in the goals they allow, being dead last in the league at 108 against. To defend them again, Ottawa averages more against per game, and the 2nd overall Blackhawks are 23rd in the league. Combine the fact that the Leafs are 25th, and I can’t really insult the stats individually as much as I wish to.

But combine two of those – that 30th in goals against on Carolina’s behalf, and Toronto’s 6th in goals for, and that’s where I get my optimism for tonight’s game. It’s a team that can score goals versus a team that can’t stop pucks at the moment. Also, the Canes being 30th in goal differential isn’t exactly something for them to be proud of.

Before I get to roster specifics, a few more team stats for you – the game is at the ACC, where the Leafs are 6-4-3, good for 20th in the league. Carolina 4-9-2 on the road, 27th in the NHL in that regard. On special teams, Toronto has the #2 powerplay in the league at 21.7%, a staggering 8.6% better than the 26th ranked Canes. Both teams are weak on the penalty kill, Carolina raking 26th at 78.7%, Toronto 29th at 74.3%. The combination of Toronto’s strong powerplay and Carolina’s weak penalty kill gives me more optimism for this game.

Sophomore sensation Jeff Skinner leads the Hurricanes in goals and points at the moment, with 12 goals and 12 assists in 30 games, making him the main player to watch. Jussi Jokinen leads the team in assists with 13. Plus minus is an odd one. Jaroslav Spacek leads the team with a +1, but has only played a single game with the team. Anthony Stewart is the only 0 player on the entire roster who has played more than half the team’s games. Eric Staal, who normally would’ve been mentioned as a positive in almost any of these stats, is having a terrible year – dead last in plus minus on the team with a -18, and he has just 7 goals and 12 assists in 31 games so far. Of course, you have to always keep your eye on him because he’s a player with so much natural talent, but it’s not the same story as it’s been in previous years.

In net for the Hurricanes will likely be Cam Ward, who’s also having a disappointing season. In 26 games, Ward is a 9-13-3, with a 3.37 goals against average and 0.896 save percentage.

Getting to the Leafs – the roster will look pretty much the same as it did on Friday, maybe with some line shuffling. Where the real discussion is, is between the pipes. Jame’s Reimer will be getting the start. Honestly, I’m torn on how to feel about this.

On one hand, you have the snubbing of Jonas Gustavsson, which is a little spotty. After all, he’s definitely the hot hand of the two, being 5-1 in his past 6 games. Why wouldn’t you start your best goaltender as of late? Especially when he’s had a few days off and can’t possibly be tired at the moment. It seems illogical to me. However, consider the other side – Carolina is a terrible team, and Reimer’s been stellar against them in his career (0.984, 0.55 in 2 games). This could be the recovery game he needs to get himself back on track. For that reason, it evens things up, and really becomes a judgement call, which ultimately went in Reimer’s favour to Wilson.

Personally, I’ll take the Reimer start, but at the same time, I’d be very, very quick to pull him if he looks the slightest bit shaky. This is a must win game in the sense that good teams don’t often lose games this mis-matched. The desperation isn’t there, but realistically, Toronto really can’t drop the ball on this game. I don’t think they will though, and expect a win, along the lines of 5-2, give or take a goal either way.

Oh, by the way

LeafsHQ live will be coming to you from Shoeless Joes once again! The King and Duncan location, this time. If you’re bored and want to tell me how wrong my opinions are in person, come by! It’s fan appreciation night, meaning if the Leafs win tonight, you get a burger or wings next time you show up. If you can’t make it, you should at least come by the live chat and talk during the game.