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Which is why I’m very happy to announce the status on all three players in regards to the Toronto Maple Leafs: Vancouver outbid Toronto for Dan Hamhuis, and…are you ready?  Colby Armstrong signed with the Leafs!

Yep, that’s right, the so-called gritty right-winger previously of the Atlanta Thrashers and Pittsburgh Penguins has signed with the blue and white for three years, making three million dollars in each of those three seasons.  Armstrong put up just 29 points last season, and in his final season with Pittsburgh he had just 24 points in 54 games playing along the league’s top centers in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.  Yeah, serious questions have to be asked when it comes to this kids offensive abilities.

On the other hand, Armstrong’s a pretty gritty kid, and a character kid at that.  His countless interviews on Hockey Central over the last year were hilarious, and he seems like a real loveable kid.  He can play at both ends of the ice and, according to some analysts should make a pretty good net presence.

But along the likes of Kessel, Versteeg, Kulemin, Sjostrom, Brown and Orr, Armstrong becomes the seventh right-winger on this team, and he appears to be an overpaid one at that.  This might not end badly, but I’m really not sure I like this one.

The Leafs didn’t stop there though.  They aggressively went after the highly-touted Joey Crabb, a right-wing grinder with some decent numbers offensively, though Hockey’s Future projects him as a future fourth-liner in the NHL. Don’t read too much into this one: he’s cheap, comes on a two-way contract, makes a decent call-up if injury arises but this is more than likely a signing to help improve the Toronto Marlies, the AHL affiliate of the Maple Leafs who Brian Burke has stated he wants to improve this year.

And according to Jonas Siegel of AM640, as well as Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet, that’s all she wrote for the Toronto Maple Leafs on day one of unrestricted free agency.  That’s not to say they’re done all-together though, because they’ve still got a bit of a hole to fill up down the middle when it comes to grinders (hopefully they don’t pay Eric Belanger three million though), and with the likes of star sniper Ilya Kovalchuk still being available, well, you never know.

But that’s not all folks.  Not by a long shot.  The Leafs trade possibilities significantly rose (or declined, in a way) with the signings of players such as Dan Hamhuis to the Canucks, Anton Volchenkov and Henrik Tallinder to the Devils, Martin and Michalek to the Penguins and Sergei Gonchar to the Senators.  With these singings, pretty much any team that had significant interest in Tomas Kaberle no longer needs him other than two teams: the Buffalo Sabres, who only managed to go out and get Jordan Leopold amidst losing Henrik Tallinder and Toni Lydman, and the Los Angeles Kings, whom were believed to be very interested in acquiring an elite defenseman such as Dan Hamhuis or Paul Martin.

It really does appear that the Sabres and Kings have emerged as the front-runners for Tomas Kaberle based on hopes of contension and defensive need, and look for those two teams to press hard for the skilled puck-mover in the coming days.  Either that or one of them will sign Pavel Kubina. We’ll see.

As for projected line-ups for next year, it looks as though the likes of Sjostrom, Kulemin and Brown will all be flipped over to the left wing as the Buds fortify themselves down the right-wing with Kessel, Versteeg, Armstrong and Orr.  It may not be pretty, but I should point out that the Stanley Cup Champion Atlanta Chicago Blackhawks had a number of players playing on the wing they weren’t used to when they won the Stanley Cup this past spring.  On the right wing they had the likes of Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Troy Brouwer, Kris Versteeg, Patrick Sharp and Dustin Byfuglien, and well, look how they turned out.

Again, as per various sources, the Leafs are done for the day.  But it wasn’t a day without productivity as the Leafs solidified toughness, belligerence and testosterone (albeit for an overpayment) and opened up new avenues for possibility on the Tomas Kaberle front.  The Leafs will look to still be active in the coming days as they notably only have Mikhail Grabovski, Tyler Bozak and potentially Christian Hanson or Nazem Kadri down the middle.  There is still quality available, and I should probably clarify one last thing: Ilya Kovalchuk is still available.

Personally, I’ve never cared much for championship droughts, period, in any league. It’s a stretch grasp to pick on teams and their fanbases, to me. But considering we won’t hear the end of this until the Leafs win a cup (2246 is the latest projection), it might as well be addressed now. So here’s what I’m going to go through with this article.

I’m going to go through who exactly are the people doing the mocking. I’m going to go through how this drought looks in comparison to other teams. I’m going to go through a theory that states we might not actually be the team with the longest drought in the NHL, why people should embrace it rather than counter argue it, and more importantly, why we typically shouldn’t care. Lets get started.

Who’s Talking?

The Toronto Media – Our media has been known for years to sell us the doom and gloom stories, how everything is wrong with this franchise, and how its everyone’s fault, including the fans. And quite often, the most obvious thing you’ll see in these articles is a reminder that its been 43 years since the Leafs have lifted the Stanley Cup, just incase we forgot their article about it the day before. Why do they do it, though? Mostly because it sells.

Its a lot easier to get people to write articles that reflect the teams history as a continuation of the present. And as we know, the last half decade of Leafs history hasn’t exactly been gumdrops, lollipops, rainbows, and unicorns. Naturally, with this considered, its much easier to ride the coattails of problems in the past that weren’t a big deal previous.  When the team is good, they’ll talk about great parts of our history, how we’re one of the greatest franchises in the history of the league, how we have the best fans, how are legends are awesome, and all that Jazz. That’s what we saw pre-lockout – can you remember anywhere near as much negative history brought up at that point?

Regardless, this doesn’t make it acceptable to flood us all with constant negativity that you’ll pretend didn’t exist the second this team wins its first playoff game since 2004. Hearing it once in a while isn’t a big deal – having at least one major media writer go on a tirade daily is a bit irritating, though.

Fanbases of Divisional Rival and Canadian Teams – This is the bulk of it, writers aside. A (usually) friendly argument between a fan of the Leafs and one of a division rival or fellow Canadian team tends to lead to the easy jab when the debate gets tough (or even if it doesn’t) for the fan of the other team, and that’s simply uttering 1967. Granted, nobody really has an argument – every single team in the Northeast Division or of Canadian origin is in the longest championship drought in its history, with the Bruins, Sabres, and Canucks all about to hit 40 years themselves next year. The Habs drought may only be 17 years, but considering that their previous one was 7, and that in itself was a record, its significant to them. Hate them or not, the Senators completely squandered what had the potential to be a dynasty in the 2000′s,walking out of it with not one cup. Calgary and Edmonton haven’t won in over half of their franchises history, both recently going all the way to game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. In reality, none of these fanbases should be particularly proud of what they’ve done in the past 20 years (well, 19 – the Oilers won the cup in 1990), and in some cases, beyond that.

For The Record (Yes, Another Article With A Freaking Chart)

Consider this chart when deciding just how big of a deal the Leafs drought supposedly is. 22 teams are in the longest droughts in their teams history. 13 teams (almost half the league) have never won once. 2 of those teams came in the year after the Leafs won, meaning 1968 was also their first year of failure in this streak. Just as a note, I know I’ll be jumped on for the Colorado one. I know that technically its not the longest drought in their history due to the Quebec Nordiques. But really, drought’s aren’t relevant to current owners, management, and players – they’re paid to look at the current year and nothing else. Droughts are relevant to fanbases, and Quebec’s history doesn’t involve Denver, hence 2002-present being the longest drought to them.

Furthermore, 7 teams either haven’t won a cup since the 70′s, or have been around that long yet haven’t won once. When does 40 years become no big deal, but 43 is the most important thing ever by anyone? Its a bit odd. Point being – 22 fanbases are the hungriest they’ve ever been. The Leafs being 5% of that isn’t that big of a deal.

Do the Leafs Even Have The Longest Drought?

Look, I’m never going to use this theory in an actual argument, because in the end, I don’t care enough to grasp at straws. But some of you do. So here’s what just clicked into my head today – the Leafs weren’t the team with the 2nd longest drought, and aren’t the new #1. They were 4th, and now 3rd. How does this work?

For technicalities sake, a Stanley Cup Champion team are considered the cup champions until the next team wins it. For example, the Pittsburgh Penguins were still the cup champions on Tuesday, and for most of Wednesday until Kane’s goal went in. By this logic, the Leafs were the Stanley Cup Champions until April 1968, after the first games played by the Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues, who still haven’t won the greatest prize in hockey. In terms of years of non-victory, the teams are equal. Make it in terms of days since they were not the cup champions, and the Leafs sit in 3rd.

Does it Even Matter?

If it matters to you, it sure as hell shouldn’t. In all honesty, championship droughts are entirely something that exists in people’s minds so they can argue which team is better amongst each other. The only thing that should matter to anyone is recent history. To me, the Chicago Blackhawks weren’t a team who have been waiting 49 years for a Stanley Cup – they were a team on the upswing going for a cup in their second year of competitiveness after a rebuild. Much like the Leafs are a team that have had desperate issues the last few years but are heading in the right direction, instead of a team that has been waiting 43 years.

Putting this into perspective – there are very few pro hockey players left that were born before the Leafs won the cup. The average player on the Leafs wasn’t born until the drought was at least 15 years in, many closer to 20, and as much as 24. The past is complete irrelevant in the big scheme of whats going on right now, and is merely an ego stroke for fans who like to trash talk, and reporters who like to report on the bad stuff. And if you must care – embrace it. The Leafs last won the cup with one of the most legend stacked rosters, in one of the most historic years in league history. It may be a long time, but it was a hell of a year to have the drought start at. I’d much rather have beaten the Canadiens in a thriller in the 50th year of the NHL with a team filled to the brim with Hall of Fame talent, than won the next year with much of that core retired, against a weak first year St. Louis only in because Expansion teams were another conference.

In the end though, it really doesn’t matter. Its just a number. It means nothing to the team now, and all the talk about how long its been since we’ve accomplished something while the Hawks actually do accomplish something in a fantastic way is just ridiculous. And that’s without considering the argument is weak anyway. But that’s just my opinion.

Over the past few months, Leafs Nation has become obsessed with an exciting 23 year old gent who honed his skills with Metallurg Magnitogorsk until 2 years ago. Now the longest serving leaf forward (and they say the roster hasn’t been blown up), Nikolai Kulemin has come off of a year that has left many people excited. But now they’re worried.

Kulemin’s contract expires at the end of the year, making him a restricted free agent. And a lot of people are worried. July 1st is in 3 weeks, meaning he’s close to be able to look at offer sheets, the Kontinental Hockey League, and arbitration. So everybody’s in a rush to sign him. But the thing is, for how much? And are the Leafs as rushed?

Well, the general consensus around the fanbase is they’d be content with anywhere between 2.25-3 million dependant on the length of his contract (less years = less money). Kulemin’s agents like that last number, and have been using it in negotiations. Of course, Burke isnt a fan of it, meaning negotiations have been rather slow, with nothing really being done on the matter in a few weeks.

So I figure I’ll play arbitrator. We’ll take a lot of factors throughout the league, and figure out what his worth is. And it may surprise a lot of you.

Why are we panicking?

Okay, this isn’t an evaluation of his worth just yet, but something that has to be done. Everyone has to stop panicking about the contract not being done yet.

First off, lets look at the list of notable restricted free agents that have signed contracts since the start of the playoffs:

- Jonas Gustavsson

Nice list, eh? Now, I know what you’re about to say. “Well, Jeff, that’s great. Can you give us the list for the entire league, and not just the Leafs?”

Sounds good. Here’s the NHL list.

- Jonas Gustavsson
- Cory Schneider

Yeah, nobody in the NHL has really signed their RFA’s just yet. Who else is left? Talent like Erik Johnson, Blake Wheeler, Wojtek Wolski, Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak, Bobby Ryan, Peter Mueller, Alex Steen, Joe Pavelski, Sam Gagner, Andrew Ladd, Ondrej Pavelec, Braydon Coburn, Devin Setoguchi, and many, many more. I’m just too lazy to write an entire article consisting of notable restricted free agents that still don’t have contracts. The point remains though – we’re not in a bad position compared to the rest of the league. In fact, we may be in better situations than many! Kulemin is the only remotely significant RFA we have, with John Mitchell and Christian Hanson more than likely pouncing on a qualifying offer if (when) they happen.

Another thing to look at – being unsigned in June doesn’t mean anything close to disloyalty. Case in point:

In 2001-02, a well hyped defenceman had a contract dispute with his team. He was a good one too – 23 years old, and had back to back 40 point seasons. They couldn’t get anything done in June. Or July, August, or September. October starts…nothing. He decides to go back to Europe. 13 games into the season, he finally signs a contract with his NHL team and comes back to get 39 points in 69 games, and being an integral key to the team making a rather good playoff run. The fanbase praised him for many years, and is currently trying to run him out of town for draft picks, even though he still is playing rather well. He’s so loyal to his franchise that he’s blocked trades out because he wants to stay.

If you haven’t figured out that I’m talking about Tomas Kaberle at this point, exit this page right now, because you’re probably too stupid to figure out everything else I’m going to say. But yes, Tomas Kaberle held out until late October, early November of 2001 and even played 9 games with Klando of the Czech league while waiting on a new contract. And has followed it with 8 more seasons in the blue and white. So don’t worry that Kulemin not being signed in freaking June means he hates the team and wants out.

Lets Start Comparing

With that all aside, lets get to the contract comparison part of this. This is where, as the name states, I compare Kulemin to a bunch of players in the league. But unlike most people who will just pick and choose 2-3 guys who make themselves look REALLY good in an argument (The Howard Berger/Steve Simmons combined contract argument theory), I’ll save something similar to that for later. What I have now is me making Player X’s – averages of a sample of a bunch of players.

My first chart involves 4 player X’s, and 30 comparison players. In this one, I took one player from each NHL team that was the closest to Kulemin’s exact stat line this year – a combination of stats, and age (players range from 20-27). This is what we got.

Obviously, the players in Red are free agents this year (all restricted with the exception of Raffi Torres, who hits the open market on July 1st). Orange-yellow denotes players who are still on their entry level contracts, so we won’t use them as an example because that would just be rude. Or incredibly unindicative of what a team has ever felt them to be worth, and merely a required contract at first signing. Or both.

Now lets look at the player X’s we have here. First thing you’ll notice – they all average out to be better players than Kulemin, both in terms of this season, and their career, in terms of statistical production. What does this mean? Kulemin’s statistical stuff is absolutely nothing special. Of course there’s other facets to his game, but stats are usually the biggest indicator in a contract.

Secondly – look at the average salary in the Green Player X – 1.97 million dollars. This gets you a player who is good for 42-43 points a year at around Kulemin’s age. That considered, does 2.25-3.0 seem a little odd for a 36 point Kulemin? I personally think so, but its up to you on whether you agree with me or not. Now, you may say “well what a biased chart – the Frans Nielsens of the world are bringing that number down!” Well, many of these guys weren’t far off from Kulemin’s numbers when they first signed. Secondarily, they’re averaged out by the several 3-4.25M contracts in this list. If I went full bias and found a way to avoid using the David Booth’s and Milan Michalek’s for this chart, that number would be even lower.

For further comparison though, I went with another approach (that does use some of the same players) to do this chart. No age concerns or anything, but instead of using the stats to figure out the cap hit, I used the cap hits to figure out the stats.

Two things before I go on – Tomas Plekanec may look like a bit of a biased addition, but do note he got this contract a year removed from a 70 point season, with a lot to indicate the present-at-the-time 39 points were just an off year. Secondarily, you’ll notice that nobody on Philadelphia was used. The reasoning for this was because they had absolutely nobody between 1.1 (Laperriere) and 4.2 million (Hartnell) other than James Van Riemsdyk, and I didn’t want to use rookie contracts. To replace him, I used two players from Phoenix, mostly so I could put Leafs scapegoat Lee Stempniak on the list.

Lets look at our player X – at 2.3 million dollars a year, he gets 7 more points than Kulemin in 5 less games. Once again indicating that even the low spectrum of 2.25-3 could be too much. On top of this, 12 out of 30 players here (about 40%) do a “perfect sweep” of Kulemin – beating him in all 5 stats while still being in the same contract range. In fact, 2 of those perfect sweepers were Leafs to start the year!

Personally, both of these considered, I’m already iffy on him being more than maybe a 2 million dollar player. Lets take a look at some contracts in depth – taking 5 players and seeing what got them what they’re being paid.

The Group of Five

My five players of choice for this are, in order of cap hits, Matt Stajan (1.75), Brandon Dubinsky (1.85), Drew Stafford (1.9), Trent Hunter (2.0), and Alex Burrows (2.0). I picked these guys because at the time of their signing, they were all fawned over by their fanbases for their recent strides as players, with Stajan, Dubinsky, and Stafford all doing it at Kulemins age (with Hunter and Burrows being a bit older). All have something about them that gave the “2 way forward” vibe that Kulemin’s been getting. Here’s a comparison of their contract years.

Yep, if you’re still an apologist of Nikolai getting a more than healthy payday from the Leafs after seeing this, you’ve gotta be a little off. With the exception of Stajan, everyone had more productive years, and were rewarded with under 2 million dollars. Alas, there are a few more angles to go through.

To Russia With A Bag of Money

Another point being brought up in discussion is speculation that the theory that Kulemin could bolt for the KHL, so we need to entice him with a similar amount of money. Lets use Kovalchuk’s recent offer from SKA St. Petersburg to come up with an estimated value. Kovalchuk has been offered 14 million a year, an absolutely whopping number for any hockey player, by far the most in the world. His estimated value in the NHL would be about 8.5 million per year, meaning they’re giving him 164% of his value. First off, lets look at a few of the other well known KHL contracts.

Alexander Radulov’s 3 year deal with Salavat Ufa pays him 4.3 million per year. Using the same formula as Kovalchuk, this would convert into 2.61 million dollars in the NHL (though he had a year left on his contract already). An argument could be made that he would get his after a 58 point season with Nashville.

Sergei Zubov signed with SKA St. Petersbugh for 5 million a year. Adjusted, that’s 3.03M in the NHL, which also makes sense after having an injury riddled 08/09.

Sergei Fedorov’s 2 year deal with Kulemin’s former Metallurg Magnitogorsk earned him approximately 12 Million (9+3), which adjusts to 3.6 a year in the NHL. With speculation that the Caps were willing to offer around 4 million to keep him, this isn’t a shock.

Lastly, Jaromir Jagr took anywhere between 7.5 and 10 million a year on his first contract with Avangard Omsk, and about 5 next year. That’s 4.5-6 million a year. Coincidentally, the Rangers offered Jagr 4.75, and the Oilers 6. Not far off either way. And 5 now would mean he’s worth 3 in the NHL now, which is about right.

Of course, you’re sitting here going, what am I getting at here?

I’m getting at that number, 164%, works to figure out Kulemin’s salary. Now, assuming he’s worth 2 million here, this means he’s worth 3.28 to the KHL (most likely Magnitogorsk). With that considered, do you really think that Kulemin is going to move his family, including his Toronto born kid, back to Russia for an extra million dollars and possibly ruin his reputation in the NHL if he feels he can break out as a legitimate player here? Personally, I don’t see it.

‘First Liner By Default’

Burke was spot on with this line:

“We haven’t exchanged proposals in a couple of weeks now. While they can say: ‘he was on your first line last year,’ there is no one who would say Nikolai Kulemin is a first line left winger. He’s a first line left winger by default because we did not have a very good team. I’m not paying for someone who gets the position by default.”

This is entirely true. First off, for a first line winger, 36 points is underwhelming, even if half the year was spent off the line. If you can’t put up 50 points on line 1, then you simply aren’t able to be a first line forward. Even if you do, you’re a weak one. And face it, at 3 million dollars, unless your team is stacked, that guy should probably be able to produce at a level that can at least be considered a weak first liner, 2 way ability be damned.

Until he can throw a 25/25 season at us, he should be paid like a normal 2nd liner at best.

How Much Has He Even Improved?

Less than, you may think. Check this out. While on paper, it looks like he’s improved pretty much every single facet of his game this year, things change once you adjust the minutes. Here is a stat comparison before adjustment, and one when he plays 20:00 a game for 82 games. And remember when looking at those offensive stats – this is a man playing with Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak instead of Mikhail Grabovski and Flavour of the Week the previous year.

While his defensive game has improved, he did produce at a lower rate than last year. If he’s the Leafs most improved player, its because everyone else who had good years weren’t on the Leafs last year. In fact, he may be the only improved leaf, of those left on the final roster that were also on the team in 09. That line loses a bit of merit now, doesn’t it?

Why We Think He’s Worth More

Leafs fans are happy to give him more money for a few reasons, that are all understandable. For one, we see potential in this kid, and don’t want to lose him. An offer sheet of fair value doesn’t give the Leafs a heck of a lot in compensation, and losing him to the KHL would just suck. We all want to see him here next year, so now that we inch closer to July, people are panicked and just want it over with. Secondly, we’ve become used to overpaying for players to ensure they stay to the point where this would just be another brick in the wall. When Jeff Finger is on your roster, you’d start to argue John Mitchell being worth more than a qualifying offer. Thirdly, Leafs nation likes to root for the little guy. Kulemin is young, and isn’t making a ton of money yet, so everyone is on his side to cash in..for now. The second he has a bad game, we’ll turn on him. It happens all the time. Finally, reports are playing with our minds. We’ve gotten stuff all year saying he’s the best thing since sliced bread, and conversely that he’s going to prove this after this year on another team. People are naturally sick of it, regardless of what they say, and just want to get this over with so we can bomb St. Petersburg and convince Ilya Kovalchuk to sign here instead (okay, that might just be me).

Conclusion

Kulemin is a fantastic young player, who should be with the Leafs for a rather long time. However, people are worrying too much about other factors to take this contract negotiation at face value. Other players around the NHL do more for less than we’re saying would be the right option, including players of the same age and potential. Kulemin would be best suited to sign at the 1.75-2 million range for a contract that would be suitable for all parties, with everything considered. The best example for him in all of this by far was Brandon Dubinsky – an early 20′s forward who came out of nowhere with wicked 2 way hockey and a rapid ascension to a top 6 role due to a lack of anyone good being in his place. He was adored by fans, and everyone freaked out until he was signed. He signed for 1.85 million, which turns out to be just fine for him. And it should be about right for Kulemin. Lets hope Burke agrees.

So, its June and the year is 2008 or later. You guys all know the drill. Tomas Kaberle probably used his no trade clause at the trade deadline, and speculation runs wild that the Leafs will trade him at the draft, particularly this year where the pick cupboard is particularly low. The particular opinion is that the Leafs want a top six forward and secondary toughness in return, in an effort to shore up a particularly ailing forward system on a team filled to the brim with defencemen and goaltending for the first time since the birth of Chris Chelios (273 BC).

At this point, everyone agrees that no matter how much we respect Kaberle for being one of the top all time defencemen on this team in terms of contribution, for being far and away the longest serving Leaf left (he’s the only player that was on the roster before October 2008. Yes, you read that right), for being classy as can be during his tenure, for consistantly being an awesome defenceman, and about a thousand things great about him, its his time to go. Dion Phaneuf has come in and declared the team his, essentially making it clear that anyone who disagrees can jump off a bridge. Francois Beauchemin had a solid year. Komisarek, when healthy, was very good after the first few weeks. Luke Schenn had a weak start to the year, but has been evolving at hyperspeed since Dion came in. Carl Gunnarsson has shown amazing strides in his play. And the Leafs have a million and one defensive prospects willing to force Jeff Finger into the AHL. Kaberle is just simply the odd one out.

There is a question that concerns many though – and that’s who would be wanting a player like Kaberle? As great as he is, there are definite concerns in such a trade.

1. How does the other team look for salary?
1a. Do they have a lot of players to sign already? High cap space may not be as good as appears.
2. Do they have enough forward depth to be able to trade someone solid away?
3. Would Kaberle be a first pairing defenceman on the team?
4. Would Kaberle be the #1 puck moving defenceman on the team?
5. Is the team in a position where they’d want to be acquiring a Kaberle to win?
6. How badly would they require Kaberle to sign an extension? And
7. Would Kaberle want to sign an extension there?

I took these 8 categories, and put them in to a chart, to see if it gives a reasonably accurate portrayal of who I thought could aquire Tomas. This is what came out of it.

It uses the 8 factors that I mentioned above, in order. With the exception of cap hit, the good, neutral, and bad weren’t evenly spread amongst the teams. What do the asterisks mean? Anaheims factor in the indecision of Scott Neidermayer, who’s future is in the cards at the moment. If he stays, than the answer is no. If not, than it ‘s yes. Washington, its a reminder for me to point out that Mike Green isn’t a puck mover, hence Kaberle’s spot at #1 there. Straight forward enough, I’d say, minus one question.

How did I figure out the wants?

I went yes for teams in the Northeast (made a mistake on Ottawa – that yes should be green), teams in the East close to the top (Washington, Pittsburgh), and teams in the east with other factors (Longtime friend and teammate Bryan McCabe being in Florida, and brother Frantisek probably putting in a good word for the Carolina Hurricanes). All other Eastern teams or Canadian teams were given a maybe. Los Angeles was given a maybe due to its rising up the charts (like Pittsburgh and Washington), as was Chicago. Detroit is in for its reputation as a good team for veteran European players to play for, and Phoenix is a maybe due to the relocation rumors possibly putting it on the way Winnipeg on June 30th, 2011, classifying it as a Canadian team.

Now, if we were going to use this as a straight up indicator of who’s in and who’s out, you’d get these as your favourites.

1. Washington / 2. Buffalo / 3. New Jersey / 4. Boston / 5. Pittsburgh

And the Bottom 5..

1. Calgary / 2. Minnesota / 3. Anaheim / 4. Detroit / 5. Nashville

Now, there are quite a few teams that surprised me once I made these charts that were so low. I honestly thought that Vancouver would be in the top 5. Chicago, Anaheim, and Detroit at least somewhat higher. Dallas similar. Pittsburgh I always saw as a possibility, but not 5th.

Nonetheless, I’m going to use that 5 as 5 of my teams where I think Kabby will go, merely cause it fits the system. And I”ll add 5 more: Chicago, Vancouver, Ottawa, Florida, and Dallas.

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Washington Capitals
Cap Space: 13.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: Tomas Fleischmann, Eric Fehr, Jose Theodore, Joe Corvo,
Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn
Notable Defencemen: Mike Green, Joe Corvo, Tom Poti
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Montreal Canadiens
Next Year’s Direction: Another full scale attempt to win the Stanley Cup
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Alexander Semin, Eric Fehr, Tomas Fleischmann
Secondary Toughness: Boyd Gordon
Best Feature To Kaberle: The Caps are close to a cup, and would arguably be the best all around defenceman on the team, and undoubtedly the best puck mover.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Such a trade keeps him out of the Division, and poses the best player potentially available in Alexander Semin

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Buffalo Sabres
Cap Space: 11.2 Million
Notable People To Resign: Toni Lydman, Henrik Tallinder, Raffi Torres, Patrick Kaleta
Notable Defencemen: Tyler Myers, Craig Rivet
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Boston Bruins
Next Year’s Direction: An attempt at improvement – not near going all out just yet
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Tomas Vanek, Tim Connolly, Drew Stafford
Secondary Toughness: Paul Gaustad
Best Feature To Kaberle: Close distance to Toronto, same division. Can be a part of a paring with Tyler Myers for years to come.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Can take Vanek’s 7.1M if Sabres are money-concious

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the New Jersey Devils
Cap Space: 15.9 Million
Notable People To Resign: Paul Martin, David Clarkson, Martin Skoula (I had to..), Ilya Kovalchuk, Rob Neidermayer
Notable Defencemen: Paul Martin, Colin White
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Philadelphia Flyers
Next Year’s Direction: A decent cup run. “If we don’t win, no big deal” level.
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Ilya Kovalchuk’s Rights, Cap Dumps of Dainius Zubrus and Brian Rolston (yikes…may have to go prospects)
Secondary Toughness: David Clarkson
Best Feature To Kaberle: Gets to be the clear cut #1 defenceman on a system that cherishes D.
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Kovalchuk is being targeted by the Leafs on July 1st, the Leafs could work his rights into a trade.

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Boston Bruins
Cap Space: 8.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: Blake Wheeler, Dennis Seidenberg, Miroslav Satan, Mark Recchi
Notable Defencemen: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Epic Fail Choke to Philadelphia Flyers
Next Year’s Direction: Not blowing a 3-0 lead in a series
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler, Pick-a-Center
Secondary Toughness: Boston’s toughness is largely primary or just signed
Best Feature To Kaberle: Near Toronto, in division, Chara’s playmaker
Best Feature To The Leafs: If draft picks are the focus, chance to get this years 1st back

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Pittsburgh Penguins
Cap Space: 10.9 Million
Notable People To Resign: Sergei Gonchar, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Matt Cooke, Mark Eaton
Notable Defencemen: Sergei Gonchar, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Loss to Montreal Canadiens
Next Year’s Direction: Another strong push at a 3rd finals appearance in 4 years
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Chris Kunitz, Jordan Staal
Secondary Toughness: Eric Godard
Best Feature To Kaberle: If Gonchar leaves, can be #1 D on major competitor
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Staal is indeed on the market, his value is possibly lower than it should be due to 3rd line minutes

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Chicago Blackhawks
Cap Space: -0.8 Million
Notable People To Resign: John Madden, Adam Burish, Jack Skille, Ben Eager, Andrew Ladd, Antti Niemi, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and others
Notable Defencemen: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Brian Campbell
Last Year’s Result: In progress, currently up 2-1 in Stanley Cup Finals
Next Year’s Direction: Be back in the finals, win a(nother) Stanley Cup
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Kris Versteeg, Dustin Byfuglien, Patrick Sharp, David Bolland, Andrew Ladd
Secondary Toughness: Ben Eager
Best Feature To Kaberle: By far his best chance to win the cup, then sign elsewhere for financial stability.
Best Feature To The Leafs: Have enough cap space to take overpayment to fix Chi-town’s mess

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Vancouver Canucks
Cap Space: 9.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Mason Raymond, Willie Mitchell, Pavol Demitra, Kyle Wellwood
Notable Defencemen: Kevin Bieksa, Sami Salo, Christian Ehroff, Alex Edler, Willie Mitchell
Last Year’s Result: Second Round Loss to Chicago Blackhawks
Next Year’s Direction: Push Towards Minimum WCF Appearance
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Mason Raymond, Michael Grabner
Secondary Toughness: Darcy Hordichuk, Rick Rypien
Best Feature To Kaberle: Still in Canada, likely heard good things from Sundin, Competitor
Best Feature To The Leafs: Rumors of Prospect Cody Hodgson being unhappy can play to Leafs advantage

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Ottawa Senators
Cap Space: 7.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Anton Volchenkov, Andy Sutton, Nick Foligno, Chris Campoli
Notable Defencemen: Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov
Last Year’s Result: First Round Loss to Pittsburgh Penguins
Next Year’s Direction: Another Playoff appearance, no big push just yet
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Jason Spezza, Nick Foligno
Secondary Toughness: Jarkko Ruutu, Matt Carkner
Best Feature To Kaberle: The closest Canadian city, would be best offensive D in quite some time
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Spezza truely wants out, could be at lower cost than expected

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Florida Panthers
Cap Space: 9.3 Million
Notable People To Resign: No core players
Notable Defencemen: Keith Ballard, Bryan McCabe, Dimitri Kulikov
Last Year’s Result: 14th in Eastern Conference
Next Year’s Direction: Rebuild – Shakeup Year
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Nathan Horton, Rostislav Olesz, Cory Stillman
Secondary Toughness: Nick Tarnasky
Best Feature To Kaberle: No doubt, going back to being on a pairing with Bryan McCabe
Best Feature To The Leafs: If Panthers are wanting to trade Horton, they have 3 weeks till NTC kicks in

Team: Tomas Kaberle to the Dallas Stars
Cap Space: 14.4 Million
Notable People To Resign: Marty Turco, Mike Modano (If Return), Jere Lehtinen, Fabian Brunnstrom, Matt Niskanen, James Neal
Notable Defencemen: Matt Niskanen, Stephane Robidas, Trevor Daley
Last Year’s Result: 12th in Western Conference
Next Year’s Direction: Push towards playoff spot
Speculated Top 6 Forwards: Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro
Secondary Toughness: Mostly Primary Toughness and Recent Contracts
Best Feature To Kaberle: Obscurity – Low pressure market, dressing room full of Leaders as is, no major expectations next year
Best Feature To The Leafs: Tom Hicks may be desperate to cut salary if he as to keep team another year

First question you may have – why does it matter what Kaberle thinks? He doesn’t have a no trade clause, so we can ship him anywhere without him saying a word anyway, you may say. In theory, yes. In practice, yes. But looking at the big picture, this isn’t the best of ideas.  A team that is confident in Kaberle wanting to be part of the teams longterm plans (whether they can afford to keep him long term or not), is much more willing to aquire him, and willing to give up more. You always want players who want to be members of your team. Its the same logic, though brought to a new extreme, as the Dany Heatley situation. The Senators had no obligation to trade him, but they knew an unhappy Heatley was an underwhelming Heatley, and worked at it until a deal worked. I’m not saying if the Leafs trade Kaberle to say, Nashville that he’s going to be toxic in the dressing room, and a terrible player, but there could be a slight difference in his confidence and willingness, even if subconscious to him.

This said, there are other teams that are being speculated to be interested in him, most notably Columbus and Anaheim. Why didn’t I include them in my list? Because the rumors aren’t really insider opinions of factors that are going on right now.  They’re similar to this blog – just opinions of what could work for both sides. And you know what, I disagree with them.

The Columbus one is the biggest example. They don’t have a top 6 forward to give the team that isn’t either inexperienced and merely potentially top 6 (Brassard, Voracek), inexperienced, potentially top 6, and potentially a total headcase (Filatov), overpaid and a vet (Huselius), or way over the trade value of Kaberle, not to mention team value (Nash). And the 4th overall pick talk is equally absurd. They say the pressure is to get a player that can step in sooner than later on D – but both Cam Fowler and Erik Gudbranson are thought to be NHL ready next year. Maybe not as good as Kaberle just yet, but certainly more valuable in the long run than potentially losing Tomas after a year.

Anaheim is a different yet still ridiculous concept. The thought would be the Leafs and Ducks would centre a deal around Bobby Ryan for Kaberle. In theory, Leafs fans are having a party right now. In practice, this isn’t the move the Ducks will make “But they have depth!” some will say. “If they can’t afford him, he’s expendable. Who else would they trade?”.  The answer lies in one Joffrey Lupul, acquired in the Chris Pronger trade.  His cap hit is weak, but not brutal, at 4.25 million. No doubt they could find a suitor for him for a pick or something like that that could clear the space for Ryan without them giving him up just yet. The team really doesn’t benefit from Kaberle’s presence just yet, particularly if Neidermayer stays.

Now, I have to be getting at something with all this talk, don’t I? Some realistic speculation on where I think he’s going to go?

While any of those 10 teams wouldn’t shock me, I think the race will end up in between New Jersey, Washington, and Chicago. New Jersey needs a new #1 D with the departure of Paul Martin looking exceedingly more likely by the day, and if Kovalchuk is in Burke’s sights, you know damn well the Leafs will want every negotiation advantage they can get, and having his rights would be a good one. Washington clearly needs another defenceman who isn’t 100% one dimensional, particuarly on that powerplay (Ovechkin and Green on the point is seriously the scariest thing to see in terms of defensive coverage of our generation). And Chicago? They could use an even more stacked D, and even moreso, they could use cap space. All 3 teams have something about them that would appeal to Kaberle.

Whether or not Lou Lamoriello, George McPhee, or Stan Bowman are thinking the same way is not something I can answer.  But hopefully, the massive run on rant that is this article gives you some perspective on what teams look like in this race.